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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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20 h |
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Without Pakistan's belief that the US is prepared to be in Afghanistan for the long haul, any likelihood we can gain its cooperation on the Taliban evaporates. Instead, it reenforces Pakistan's determination to hold on to the Taliban as a proxy Pashtun force.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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21 de dec. |
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The announced partial troop withdrawal emboldens the Taliban to press for a full pull out. The action weakens the US hand in negotiations, having made a concession and getting nothing in return. It also weakens the Ghani government which has staked so much on the US commitment
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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20 de dec. |
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Trump's pulling out is a strong possibility should Zal return from the region empty handed. But Trump may also justify leaving if Zal returns with something that Trump can spin as in Syria as representing a success.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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18 de dec. |
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What will it take for people to realize that, talks or no talks, the foremost obstacle to peace is likely to remain a Taliban vision of an Afghan government and society incompatible with that of Kabul and the international community.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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11 de dec. |
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At stake in the still uncertified October election is the very legitimacy of Afghanistan's exercise in democracy. One clear winner is the Taliban, which can relish the election's controversy and confusion. mei.edu/publications/m…
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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1 de dec. |
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@HelenaMalikyar Helena, a superb piece. Afghanistan needs a reset regardless of what the Taliban decide to do. Preoccupation with getting the Taliban to a negotiating table draws attention away from the kind of system restructuring that is the country's last best hope.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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26 de nov. |
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The current hype over the prospects for peace and apparent rush to conclude a deal reflects the fear that without a show of progress toward negotiations, Trump will pull the plug on Afghanistan. mei.edu/publications/m…
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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25 de nov. |
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Yes, there are spoilers on both sides.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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22 de nov. |
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Too cryptic, please explain.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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21 de nov. |
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Afghans should stop gloating over Trump's tirade against Pakistan. Hard to imagine progress toward peace if the Pakistanis are not on board. We may argue whether Pakistan can dictate to the Taliban but there's little doubt of its ability to play spoiler.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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21 de nov. |
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With so many pundits creating the illusion that serious peace talks with the Taliban are at hand, they are only strengthening the rationale for a Trump pullout when the current "signs" come to nothing.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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14 de nov. |
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With the Taliban accorded equal footing with other delegations at last week's meeting in Moscow, the insurgents were given a degree of international legitimacy never previously offered.. mei.edu/publications/g…
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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5 de nov. |
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Demonstrations linked to the acquittal of Asia Bibi and the assassination of Maulana Samiul Haq are likely unrelated but both have rattled a still young government trying to cope with serious economic problems and anxious to prove its political mettle.
mei.edu/publications/y…
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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29 de out. |
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While Imran Khan "hat in hand" was able to come away from the Saudi fete with a nice contribution for Pakistan, it also provided the kingdom a welcome opportunity to serve its own interests. mei.edu/content/flash/…
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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28 de out. |
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When, desperate for peace, is a settlement in effect a surrender? And with what consequences? How many will hang around for Emirate?
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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22 de out. |
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Afghanistan parliamentary elections, three years delayed, have fallen short of providing the struggling Kabul regime the legitimacy it so badly seeks. mei.edu/content/flash/…
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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20 de out. |
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The Polyannas among us are undisturbed. The Kandahar attack must be seen as good news, evidence the Taliban are serious about peace--all about improving their bargaining position for coming talks. It's hard to imagine what bad news would look like.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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13 de out. |
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Here's the latest on Gulbuddi's antics. tolonews.com/elections-2018…’-winners-and-losers-hekmatyar
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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13 de out. |
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The US government and Kabul ought to eat crow for their naive agreement allowing Gulbuddin to become the disruptive political force he has become domestically. As I had predicted, he will accomplish from the inside what he was never able to succeed in doing from the outside.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
@mgweinbaum
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22 de set. |
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Our strategic plan had specified it was "conditions based," which most people foolishly took as an indefinite commitment to stay. Trump had to be talked into the plan in the first place, so why should we be surprised if he takes this opportunity to bail out?
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