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Neil Irwin
@
Neil_Irwin
Washington, DC
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Senior economic correspondent at The New York Times. Author, "How to Win in a Winner-Take-All World," on navigating a career in the modern economy, out June 18.
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1.100
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1.414
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| Neil Irwin ha retuitat | ||
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Nick Timiraos
@NickTimiraos
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14 min |
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Clarida says the U.S. economy is in a "very good place" but indicates interest rate cuts would be under discussion if the growth outlook materially darkens wsj.com/articles/fed-w…
The key lines from his speech this afternoon: pic.twitter.com/RMr98Zo8HS
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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34 s |
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Fantastic piece from @jbarro on why public infrastructure costs so much more in New York than London or Paris.
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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15 h |
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Didn’t mean to suggest that current short rates, comfortably above long term yields, are something other than an annualized rate.
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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19 h |
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Current 2 year yield at 2.11% vs. effective federal funds rate at ~2.4% implies that one or the other's gotta give, no? Question is which, and how itchy Powell's trigger finger gets for an insurance rate cut.
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Ana Swanson
@AnaSwanson
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19 h |
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"China dominates entire import product categories, including clock and watch batteries, women’s clothing items and footwear components. Practically all imported photograph albums come from China, and most toys are made there." nytimes.com/2019/05/29/bus…
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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19 h |
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Yeah, yield curve seems consistent with a forecast of ~50 bps of rate cuts by year end, with growth stabilizing at sub-2% but with no recession. twitter.com/LinkedInEcon/s…
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Eddy Elfenbein
@EddyElfenbein
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22 h |
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The S&P 500 is tracking for its lowest close since March 8. For context, that was so long ago, it was still the NBA regular season.
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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22 h |
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Love this chart (and column) from @greg_ip though would love to see how the path of Exxon Mobil and Berkshire Hathaway stack up over time.
wsj.com/articles/if-th… pic.twitter.com/VZUvkhf6bo
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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22 h |
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Never stop making this joke.
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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22 h |
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Anybody?
Anecdotally, I think the west coast housing bubble made Yellen more attuned to that risk in '07. Commodity boom made Fisher and Hoenig more hawkish in '07-'08. But not aware of a more systematic analysis. twitter.com/dkopf/status/1…
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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29 de maig |
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You know the moment in a horror movie when nothing bad has actually happened to the characters yet, but you, the viewer, are aware of all kinds of ominous stuff?
That's how this moment feels watching financial markets.
nytimes.com/2019/05/29/ups…
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Jeanna Smialek
@jeannasmialek
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29 de maig |
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NY Fed finds:
*Corporate debt-to-GDP is at its highest in 50 yrs
*The spike is "associated with more acquisitions, stock buybacks and dividends," not capex
*Debt-to-earnings ratio is coming down, but it's pretty darn high
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/05/is-the… pic.twitter.com/FJhjvn1u1f
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Alec MacGillis
@AlecMacGillis
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29 de maig |
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Filling the entire above-the-fold of NYT Biz section front page. Well done, meme. nytimes.com/2019/05/28/bus… pic.twitter.com/cyTJzYDkvW
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Daniel Pink
@DanielPink
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29 de maig |
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Eleven questions to ask to discover whether you have a good manager (or are a good manager yourself).
inc.com/jeff-haden/her… pic.twitter.com/zkxYdWSSEF
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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28 de maig |
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Would love to see an attempt at hedonic adjustment in wage inflation calculations. Anecdotally, there seems to be an important way real wages fluctuate given nominal rigidity (e.g., during 2009 you could staff even low-wage jobs with high-performing workers, the reverse now). twitter.com/kearney_meliss…
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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28 de maig |
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A new vacancy in one of the most important beneath-the-radar jobs in central banking and financial markets. twitter.com/WSJecon/status…
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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27 de maig |
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BUT HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE IN EQUITIES THERE?
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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26 de maig |
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So Dakar>DC I guess?
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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26 de maig |
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I spent last weekend in New Hampshire, listening to how Democratic candidates and voters are thinking about the economy, and how they will take on Trump's economic boasts in 2020.
Here's what I heard:
nytimes.com/2019/05/26/ups…
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Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
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26 de maig |
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The last two times a president has lost re-election, the unemployment rates were 7.4% (HWBush) and 7.5% (Carter).
With the economy humming, here's how the Democratic playbook to challenge Trump on the economy is shaping up, from on the ground in NH:
nytimes.com/2019/05/26/ups…
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