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	<title>Shadow Government Statistics</title>
	<link>http://www.shadowstats.com</link>
	<description>Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2017 18:21:25 +0000</pubDate>
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			<item>
		<title>No. 862:  Industrial Production, CPI, Real Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Freight Index   </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c862</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2017 15:09:39 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c862</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; Real Earnings Contracted in Fourth-Quarter 2016 
&#8226; Fourth-Quarter Production Fell Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Protracted Patterns Never Seen Outside of a Recession in 99-Year History of the Series 
&#8226; Despite a Large Boost from an Irregular, Weather-Driven Surge in Utilities, December Production Still Was Down by 1.10% (-1.10%) from Its Pre-Recession High, Down by 1.98% (-1.98%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery  
&#8226; December Manufacturing Remained Down by 6.18% (-6.18%) from Its Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak 
&#8226; CASS Freight Index Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation 
&#8226; December 2016 Monthly Inflation Firmed by 0.3%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 30-Month High of 2.1%, with 
CPI-W at 2.0% and ShadowStats at 9.8% 
&#8226; December Nominal Retail Sales Gains of 0.63% Month-to-Month and 4.13% Year-to-Year, Turned to 0.34% and a Recessionary 1.99% on an Inflation-Adjusted, Real-Growth Basis 
&#8226; Net of Year-End, Incentive-Spiked Automobile Sales, Real Holiday-Season Shopping Turned Down in November and December   
&#8226; Despite Continuing Nonsense Volatility in Monthly Data, Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Activity Down Respectively by 46% (-46%) and 47% (-47%) from Pre-Recession Peaks ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Tentative Schedule for Commentaries</title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/tentative-schedule</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2017 05:17:12 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Site News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/tentative-schedule</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[
&#160;



Commentary Date
Releases
Period
Release Date
        

&#160;
&#160;
        

Friday, January 27, 2017
Existing Home Sales
            New Home Sales
            GDP
      [...]]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 861:  Nominal Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), GAAP-Deficit  </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c861</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jan 2017 17:01:56 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c861</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; The 2016 Headline Cash-Based Federal Deficit was $0.587 Trillion; Using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, the Deficit Was $1.048 Trillion 
&#8226; Including the Net Present Value of Unfunded Liabilities, the GAAP-Based Federal Deficit in 2016 Appears to Have Widened by About $7 Trillion versus 2015 
&#8226; Nominal December Retail Sales Gain of 0.6% Was Not Good News; Incentive-Boosted Auto Sales Borrowed Activity from First-Quarter 2017; Holiday Season Real Sales Growth Likely Did Not Break-Even 
&#8226; Annual December 2016 PPI Energy Inflation Rose Meaningfully for the First Time Since the Collapsing Oil Prices of 2014 
&#8226; Monthly December PPI Inflation: Goods Up 0.74%, Construction Down 0.09% (-0.09%), Services Up 0.09%, Total Up by 0.27% ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Commentaries News</title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/commentaries-news</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jan 2017 05:02:13 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Site News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/commentaries-news</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[
The next regular Commentary, scheduled for Friday, January 27th will cover December 2016 New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales and the first estimate of Fourth-Quarter 2016 Gross Domestic Product.&#160;&#160; See Schedule for details.

]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 860: December Labor Conditions, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c860</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jan 2017 23:18:13 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c860</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; November Trade Deficit Widened Sharply, Setting the Stage for the Worst Quarterly Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Since 2007, and Taking a Large Chunk Out of Fourth-Quarter 2016 GDP Growth 
&#8226; Nonsense Employment Detail: Payrolls Rose 156,000 in December, Gained 703,000 in Last Four Months, but 
Full-Time Employment Rose 35,000 in December, Flat (-8,000) in Last Four Months 
&#8226; Annual Growth Rates in December Payroll and Full-Time Employment Fell Sharply, to Multi-Year Lows; Nonfarm Payrolls at Weakest Growth Since Exiting the Recession 
&#8226; Household Survey Revisions Were Minimal for Widely Followed Details, yet January Unemployment Data Face a Series Break, while the Payroll Survey Faces Net Downside Benchmark Revisions Next Month 
&#8226; December 2016 Unemployment Rates Mixed: U.3 Rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, U.6 Eased to 9.2% from 9.3%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Eased to 22.7% from 22.8% 
&#8226; Despite a Monthly Nominal Gain and Downside Prior-Period Revisions, Real Construction Spending Remained Down by 22% (-22%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession High 
&#8226; December M3 Annual Growth Notched Higher to 3.9% Versus an Upwardly Revised 3.8% in November; Still Down from 4.5% in June ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 859 - SPECIAL COMMENTARY, YEAR-END, YEAR-AHEAD Economic and Financial Review and Preview</title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c859</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jan 2017 00:56:16 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c859</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; Consumer Expectations Soar Along with Anticipated Changes to that Former Malarial Swamp on the Potomac 
&#8226; New Fiscal Stimuli Could Boost Economic Activity by Early-2018 
&#8226; Yet, the Near-Term Economy Continues in Renewed Tumble, Never Having Recovered Fully from Its Collapse into 2009 
&#8226; Intensifying, Headline Downturn Threatens Resurgent Fed Pressures for Expanded Quantitative Easing and Intensified Dollar Debasement 
&#8226; Budget-Deficit Issues Should Refocus Global Currency Markets on Long-Range U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Concerns 
&#8226; Sovereign-Solvency and Quantitative-Easing Issues Threaten to Crash the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Roiling Financial Markets by Mid-2017 
&#8226; Long-Range Economic and Financial-Market Health and Stability Depend on Resolving Both the Misdirected Policies of the Federal Reserve and the Solvency Concerns of the Global Markets  
&#8226; Given Issues of Fed Independence and Ingrained, Systemic Intransigence, Early Resolutions of the Fed and Solvency Problems Are Not Likely  
&#8226; Accordingly, Massive U.S. Dollar Selling, Debasement and Hyperinflation Remain the Primary Risks to Domestic Economic and Political Stability; Precious Metals Remain the Proven and Established Primary Inflation Hedge ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 858:  Economic and Financial Review and Preview  </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c858</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Dec 2016 02:54:17 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c858</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; Consumer Expectations Soar Along with Anticipated Changes from the Incoming Administration 
&#8226; Yet, the Near-Term Domestic Economic Outlook Remains Bleak, Fueling New Fiscal Stimuli but Frustrating Fed Policies 
&#8226; With Resurgent Pressures on the Fed to Expand Quantitative Easing, and with Global Markets Refocusing on Long-Range U.S. Treasury Solvency Issues, Massive Selling of the U.S. Dollar and Stocks Is Highly Likely by Mid-2017 
&#8226; Serious Inflation Problems Should Accompany the Dollar Selling; Precious Metals Remain the Primary Inflation Hedge  
&#8226; Since the Onset of the Millennium, Gold Still Has Outperformed Stocks, Including Reinvested Dividends, Despite Recent Heavy Gold Selling and Stocks near All-Time Highs ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 857: November Durable Goods, New- and Existing Home Sales, Revised Third-Quarter GDP  </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c857</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Dec 2016 16:42:25 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c857</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; Decline in November Durable Goods Orders Was Dominated by a 74% (-74%) Plunge in Irregular Commercial Aircraft Orders 
&#8226; Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Orders Gained for the Month, but Smoothed Activity Showed Ongoing Recession 
&#8226; Latest Revisions to Third-Quarter National Income Were Not Credible: Annualized Headline Growth of 3.5% (Was 3.2%) for GDP, 4.8% (Was 5.2%) for GDI and 3.4% (Was 3.1%) for GNP 
&#8226; Better-Quality Indicators of Broad Business Activity Still Show the Economy Never Recovered from Its Collapse into 2009 and Is Turning Down Anew 
&#8226; Home-Sales Activity Continued in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation 
&#8226; Gain of 5.2% in November New-Home Sales Was No More than Statistical Noise, Still Down by 57% (-57%) from Pre-Recession High 
&#8226; November Existing-Home Sales Still Down by 23% (-23%) from Pre-Recession Peak; 0.7% Monthly Gain Largely Was Due to Downside Revision in October 
&#8226; Annual Existing-Sales Growth Heavily Skewed by Year-Ago Reporting Inconsistencies 
&#8226; Proportion of Existing Sales in Foreclosure Rose for a Second Month ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 856: November Housing Starts, Freight Index, Economic Outlook  </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c856</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Dec 2016 17:03:49 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c856</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; November Freight Index Signaled Continued Weakening Economy and Non-Recovery 
&#8226; Nonsensical Month-to-Month Volatility in Housing Starts Continued: September Fell 9.6% (-9.6%), October Gained 27.4%, November Fell 18.7% (-18.7%) 
&#8226; Most-Extreme Reporting Instability Since the Depths of the 1980 Recession 
&#8226; Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation; Activity Down Respectively by 52% (-52%) and 47% (-47%) from Pre-Recession Peaks 
&#8226; Broad U.S. Economic Activity Has Continued to Falter ]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>No. 855: November CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, FOMC and the U.S. Dollar and Gold  </title>
		<link>http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c855</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 22:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c855</guid>
                <description>(SGS Subscription required) <![CDATA[&#8226; November 2016 Annual Inflation Firmed by Another 0.1%, with CPI-U at 1.7%, CPI-W at 1.5% and ShadowStats at 9.4% 
&#8226; November Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Fell by 0.12% (-0.12%) in the Month, Year-to-Year Growth of 2.02% Generated an Intense Recession Signal  
&#8226; Real Earnings Fell for Fourth Straight Month in November, On Track for a Fourth-Quarter Contraction  
&#8226; FOMC Rate Hike and Prospective Further Rate Increases Face Massive Hurdles from Intensifying Economic Weakness that Will Stress Systemic Liquidity and Solvency 
&#8226; U.S. Dollar Is Particularly Vulnerable Now to Unexpected Economic Deterioration 
&#8226; Market Upheaval and Dollar Doom Remain Likely in 2017 Due to a Still-Dysfunctional and Deceptive Federal Reserve ]]></description>
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