Michael Reagan: Climate alarmists will miss California’s drought 

Posted: January 25, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, weather
Tags:
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Image credit: UC Berkeley

Image credit: UC Berkeley


The drought ended so dramatically that a state of emergency has been declared for large parts of California.
H/T GWPF

California’s drought which the New York Times characterized as “unending,” ended. This is good news for everyone other than Al Gore and his depressing band of climate Cassandras.

Well, the rains came after all to California and it was the answer to prayer for many citizens. For others the rain was a splash in the face, so to speak.

California’s seven-year drought came in very handy for climate conspirators. Their heat hysteria convinced gullible legislators that only by seizing control of the economy and tightening the noose of regulation around people’s lives could a weather wipeout be avoided.

It didn’t matter that California is a semi-arid state and periodic droughts are part of the climate package. Past droughts are in the past. The one that was just concluded was here right now and could be used to beat the extreme weather, coming-doom drum.

But now it’s rained on their parade. A drought the warmist New York Times characterized as “unending,” ended.
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Advanced geometry used by prehistoric architects in US Southwest, say scientists

Posted: January 25, 2017 by oldbrew in History, Maths, Measurement, research
Tags: ,
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[click on image to enlarge]

[click on image to enlarge]


Another one to add to the ‘how and why did they do that?’ list of ancient sites. Years of research lie ahead.

Imagine you are about to plan and construct a building that involves several complicated geometrical shapes, but you aren’t allowed to write down any numbers or notes as you do it. For most of us, this would be impossible.

Yet, new research from Arizona State University has revealed that the ancient Southwestern Pueblo people, who had no written language or written number system, were able to do just that – and used these skills to build sophisticated architectural complexes, reports Phys.org.

Dr. Sherry Towers, a professor with the ASU Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, uncovered these findings while spending several years studying the Sun Temple archaeological site in Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado, constructed around A.D. 1200.

“The site is known to have been an important focus of ceremony in the region for the ancestral Pueblo peoples, including solstice observations,” Towers says. “My original interest in the site involved looking at whether it was used for observing stars as well.”

However, as Towers delved deeper into the site’s layout and architecture, interesting patterns began to emerge.
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Domestic Wood Burning Leads To “Very High Pollution Alert” For London

Posted: January 24, 2017 by oldbrew in atmosphere, Emissions, ideology
Tags: ,
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.
.
Choking on greencrap – ‘unintended consequences’ indeed :/

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian

image

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38716498

From the BBC:

A “very high” air pollution warning has been issued for London for the first time under a new alert system.

Warnings are being issued at bus stops, roadside signs and Tube stations under the new system set up by London Mayor Sadiq Khan.

The rise has been attributed to cold, calm and settled weather, meaning winds are not dispersing local pollutants.

The mayor said “the shameful state of London’s toxic air” meant he had to trigger the alert.

“This is the highest level of alert and everyone – from the most vulnerable to the physically fit – may need to take precautions to protect themselves from the filthy air,” he said.

A spike in pollution on Sunday was the highest level recorded since April 2011……

The last time pollution reached this level was early last month, according to pollution monitoring stations…

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Daily Mail: Energy bills to fall as billions in ‘green crap’ subsidies axed 

Posted: January 24, 2017 by oldbrew in Energy, government
Tags: ,
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UK Cabinet visits Cheshire

UK Cabinet visits Cheshire


Someone that UK leaders listen to may have pointed out that hanging a ‘green’ millstone round the neck of the economy, as recommended by the EU, is not the best route to success.
H/T GWPF

Household energy bills are set to fall after ministers unveiled plans to slash green subsidies, it emerged yesterday.

Billions of pounds are handed out by the Government to wind farm and solar energy firms every year, with families and manufacturers picking up the cost. These climate change subsidies add around £110 a year to a household’s average bill.

Theresa May’s industrial strategy, published yesterday, suggested that these levies should be dramatically reduced to help steel plants, which pay for emissions, compete overseas.
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El Nino to El Nino – no net global warming

Posted: January 23, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, data, ENSO, Natural Variation
Tags:
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.
.
Comparing the actual data to the forecasts of climate models is also embarrassing for those obsessed with climate warming.

wryheat

uahdec2016

The Earth experienced two super El Ninos recently: 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. It was expected that 2016 would be the hottest year in the satellite record which begins in 1979. It was, but by only 0.02°C over 1998. That is not statistically significant according to Dr. Roy Spencer, keeper of the UAH satellite system data. (The margin of error is 0.1°C, much larger than the difference between the El Nino years.) The graph above shows the UAH results. A separate satellite analysis by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) came to the same conclusion.

Satellites measure the temperature of the lower troposphere, the portion of the atmosphere where weather takes place. These measurements give a more realistic picture of global temperature than do surface measurements. Essentially, global temperature now is the same as it was nearly 18 years ago.

The earlier El Nino had a sharp drop off as a strong La…

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Tidal lagoons are uneconomic 

Posted: January 23, 2017 by oldbrew in Energy, government, Tides
Tags: ,
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Credit: TLP

Credit: TLP


That’s the view of the GWPF, as explained below. Whether the UK government will be put off by the huge cost of the subsidies remains to be seen.

Mr Hendry’s report implicitly recommending that the UK government support the £1.3 billion Swansea Tidal Lagoon project presumably moves the scheme one step closer to realisation.

However, the headline facts show that there is no justification for compelling UK consumers to de-risk the scheme for its projectors.

The principal and overwhelming disadvantage of most renewable electricity technologies is that they are of low energy productivity in themselves and reduce the productivity of the electricity system of which they are a part.
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Radiation clouds at aviation altitudes 

Posted: January 22, 2017 by oldbrew in atmosphere, Clouds, research
Tags:
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Credit: airbus.com

Credit: airbus.com


The observed radiation surges seem to occur ‘at relatively high latitudes, well above 50 degrees in both hemispheres’. They suspect certain magnetic phenomena could be at work. Korean researchers may have found something similar occurring at middle latitudes.

A new study published in the peer-reviewed journal Space Weather reports the discovery of radiation “clouds” at aviation altitudes. When airplanes fly through these clouds, dose rates of cosmic radiation normally absorbed by air travelers can double or more, reports Spaceweather.com.

“We have flown radiation sensors onboard 264 research flights at altitudes as high as 17.3 km (56,700 ft) from 2013 to 2017,” says Kent Tobiska, lead author of the paper and PI of the NASA-supported program Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS). “On at least six occasions, our sensors have recorded surges in ionizing radiation that we interpret as analogous to localized clouds.”
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Trump signals big shift on energy, climate policies

Posted: January 21, 2017 by oldbrew in climate, Energy, government, Politics
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The Oval Office

The Oval Office


The Presidential ceremonies are over, now the political action starts with implications for certain government agencies, as Phys.org reports.

US President Donald Trump signaled a sharp break on energy and the environment policy Friday, announcing plans to undo climate policies and promote domestic energy development as part of his “America First” agenda.

A statement on the White House website, posted shortly after Trump took the oath of office, said he was “committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan” advocated by his predecessor Barack Obama. Trump also will focus on removing hurdles to domestic energy development that he argues will make the US independent of foreign oil.
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Ancient tree rings suggest sunspot cycles have been ongoing for 290 million years

Posted: January 20, 2017 by oldbrew in History, research, Solar physics
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Petrified log at Petrified Forest National Park, AZ [image credit: Jon Sullivan / Wikipedia]

Petrified log at Petrified Forest National Park, AZ
[image credit: Jon Sullivan / Wikipedia]


They seem to base their estimates of the past solar cycle length on a study of only 79 years’ worth of data which is almost certainly too short for high accuracy, but the results are interesting nevertheless.

A pair of German researchers has found evidence in ancient tree rings of a solar sunspot cycle millions of years ago similar to the one observed in more modern times, reports Phys.org.

In their paper published in the journal Geology, Ludwig Luthardt and Ronny Rößler describe how they gathered an assortment of petrified tree samples from a region in Germany and used them to count sunspot cycles.

Scientists know that the sun undergoes a sunspot cycle of approximately 11 years—some spots appear, grow cooler and then slowly move toward the equator and eventually disappear—the changes to the sun spots cause changes to the brightness level of the sun—as the level waxes and wanes, plants here on Earth respond, growing more or less in a given year—this can be seen in the width of tree rings.

In this new effort, the researchers gathered petrified tree samples from a region of Germany that was covered by lava during a volcanic eruption approximately 290 million years ago (during the Permian period), offering a historical record of sun activity.
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Scottish wind farm turbine collapse under investigation 

Posted: January 20, 2017 by oldbrew in Energy, turbines, wind
Tags: ,
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Artist's impression [credit: ScottishPower Renewables]

Artist’s impression [credit: ScottishPower Renewables]


Ouch – embarrassing for the builders and a hefty bill for somebody. No reports of any injuries.

A wind turbine has collapsed in the south-west of Scotland, BBC Scotland understands.

The incident happened at Kilgallioch wind farm, which straddles the border between Dumfries and Galloway and South Ayrshire, early last Friday.

An investigation has been launched by developer Scottish Power Renewables and turbine manufacturer Gamesa.
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Britain hit by another climate policy fiasco: £168 million up in smoke 

Posted: January 20, 2017 by oldbrew in government, Incompetence, Uncertainty
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Credit: Scottish Power

Credit: Scottish Power


When does the UK climate fiasco budget run out? Not any time soon it seems, unless the Treasury squeezes out mad and/or bad ideas like unilateral CCS projects.
H/T GWPF

The UK government spent £100m on a competition to promote carbon capture and storage (CCS) schemes but it all fell apart. This was even after £68m had been spent on a previous competition for CCS, which it cancelled in 2011.

NAO’s report finds that the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy’s plan to use a second competition to develop and deploy carbon capture and storage was ambitious, but ultimately, unsuccessful when the Treasury pulled the rug away because of uncertainty over costs.
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Fracking is acceptable, says Church of England 

Posted: January 19, 2017 by oldbrew in fracking, opinion, Shale gas
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churcheng
Sometimes, that is. Any financial returns would also be acceptable no doubt.
H/T GWPF

The Church of England has concluded that fracking can be morally acceptable in a move that shale gas explorers hope could pave the way for drilling to take place on church land.

After years of internal debate on the issue, the church has published an extensive briefing paper giving cautious support for fracking subject to conditions, including strict regulation, environmental monitoring and compensation for those affected.

It concluded that fracking could be useful to tackle climate change as long as shale gas replaced dirtier energy sources. The position puts it at odds with groups such as Christian Aid, which opposes all fracking on climate grounds.
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Stellarator vs tokamak: The path to nuclear fusion

Posted: January 19, 2017 by oldbrew in Energy, innovation, Nuclear power, research
Tags:
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fusiongrid
The latest contenders for the elusive fusion crown are reviewed here. Chasing the ‘holy grail’ of energy is an expensive and time-consuming business, as IB Times reports.

In a world struggling to kick its addiction to fossil fuels and feed its growing appetite for energy, there’s one technology in development that almost sounds too good to be true: nuclear fusion, writes Matthew Hall.

If it works, fusion power offers vast amounts of clean energy with a near limitless fuel source and virtually zero carbon emissions. That’s if it works. But there are teams of researchers around the world and billions of dollars being spent on making sure it does.

In February last year a new chapter of fusion energy research commenced with the formal opening of Wendelstein 7-X. This is an experimental €1 billion (A$1.4bn) fusion reactor built in Greifswald, Germany, to test a reactor design called a stellarator.
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Australian PM argues the case for coal power 

Posted: January 18, 2017 by oldbrew in Energy, government, ideology, Politics
Tags: , , ,
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Dumper truck symbol = coal production [click on image to enlarge]

Dumper truck symbol = coal production [click on image to enlarge]

Can politicians put sanity ahead of ideology for Australian electricity generation following recent blackout fiascos?

The Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has reinforced his belief in the importance of coal as a pragmatic part of the global energy mix, reports PEI. The Australian online reports Turnbull as saying he had the same opinion while leader of the opposition in 2009.

“We are the biggest coal exporter in the world. If anybody — if any country — has a vested interest in demonstrating that clean coal and cleaner coal with new technologies can make a big contribution to our energy mix — and, at the same time, reduce our emissions in net terms — it’s us.”

“Our approach, and my approach, to energy is absolutely pragmatic and practical. This is not a matter for ideology.” Mr Turnbull said both renewables and fossil fuels would have a role to play in energy production in the future.
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The Planets have control of Solar variability

Posted: January 17, 2017 by oldbrew in solar system dynamics
Tags:
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The Sun and the gas giant planets [credit: Wikipedia]

The Sun and the gas giant planets [credit: Wikipedia]


Interesting recent research from Norway on solar-planetary theory introduced by one of the authors, Harald Yndestad.
H/T Tallbloke

The planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune affect irradiation variability from the sun

Published: 20.aug. 2016 New Astronomy

By Harald Yndestad a), og Jan-Erik Solheim b)

a) Norwegian University of Science and Technology Aalesund, Aalesund 6025, Norway
b) Department of Physics and Technology UiT The Arctic, University of Norway, Tromsø 9037, Norway

Highlights
Deterministic periods: Data series of total radiation (TSI) from the sun, has stationary periodic changes over 1000 years.
Cause: The periods are controlled by the four giant planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.
Explanation: There is a mutual gravitation between the sun and the planets that change circulation in Sun’s interior dynamo.
Harmonic periods: Planets periods and combination resonance between periods produces a range of stationary periods from about 11 to 500 years, and more
Impact: The sum of the period affects the sun’s surface and alter the radiation from the sun and climate on Earth.
Historic Climate Change: The identified periods explains known cold climate periods Oort (1010-1030), Wolf (1270-1349), Spurs (1390-1550), Maunder (1640-1720) and Dalton (1790-1820)
Modern climate: We have had a modern maximum period (1940-2015) with radiation.
Prognosis: We are entering a period with less radiation, a “colder” sunny, with a calculated at a minimum of Dalton-level of approximately (2040-2065).

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Venus: giant gravity wave discovered in atmosphere

Posted: January 16, 2017 by oldbrew in exploration, Gravity, research, solar system dynamics, waves
Tags: , ,
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venus_atm
A wave from pole to pole in the cloud tops that doesn’t move – but then disappears? Another Venus conundrum emerges.

A massive, un-moving structure has been discovered in the upper atmosphere of Venus, reports the IB Times.

Scientists detected the feature with the Jaxa’s Akatsuki spacecraft and they believe it is some sort of gravity wave – although they do not understand how it ended up at the altitude of cloud tops.

The bow-shaped structure was first spotted in December 2015 and a team led by scientists from Rikkyo University in Japan were able to observe it over several days.

It measured 10,000km in length and was brighter and hotter than the surrounding atmosphere. When scientists attempted to observe it again a month later, it had disappeared. The team published their findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.
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World Cup ski race cancelled because of too much snow 

Posted: January 16, 2017 by oldbrew in weather
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Credit: myswitzerland.com

Credit: myswitzerland.com


The BBC’s report mentions a ‘cold snap’ but it’s been around for a while now in many parts of Europe.

A famous downhill race in the Skiing World Cup has been cancelled – because there has been too much snow.

Saturday’s race at the Lauberhorn course in Wengen, Switzerland, was dropped after more than 40cm (16in) of snow fell overnight. Crews worked through the night but were unable to prepare the piste in time.

After a dry start to the ski season in December, resorts are now dealing with heavy flurries as a cold snap grips Europe.
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Alan Carlin – Why the Green climate scare defies millions of years of climate history

Posted: January 15, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Cycles, Ice ages, modelling, Natural Variation, opinion, Temperature, Uncertainty
Tags: , ,
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Credit: thegwpf.com

Credit: thegwpf.com


Alan Carlin argues that the stability of the Earth’s climate within its two fundamental modes, glacial and interglacial, is underestimated or ignored by climate modellers in their desire to talk up supposed human-caused factors.

The UN IPCC reports on climate are truly unusual scientifically.

Without any serious discussion or even an attempt to point out their unusual nature, they try to convince readers that the basic nature of Earth’s climate has been radically changed after millions of years, all because one very minor constituent of the atmosphere has been increasing, as it usually does during interglacial periods in response to higher temperatures.

During this long period the basic nature of Earth’s climate can be characterized as bistability. In other words, Earth has had dual climate equilibria. One occurs during ice ages and the other during interglacial periods. Both are very stable except that Earth flips from the ice age equilibrium to the interglacial roughly every 100,000 years and flips back again after another 10,000 to 12,000 years.

History suggests that we may be close to the next flip into an ice age, the colder of the two bistability climates. This has enormous implications for humans and all life on Earh. But the upper “limit” on interglacial temperatures does not appear to have been breached in all that time.
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Re-visiting one of the PRP papers

Posted: January 15, 2017 by oldbrew in Cycles, modelling, research, solar system dynamics
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Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

Browsing through some of the PRP papers I came across this at the end of the introduction to R.J. Salvador’s paper – A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr:

Another well-known oscillation found in solar records is
the de Vries cycle of 208 yr (see McCracken et al., 2013).
The frequency of 1253 yr, together with the Jose frequency of
178.8 yr, produces a beat of 208 yr and is used in the model.

Looking back at this Talkshop post from 2014 I wondered if these numbers could be linked to it.

From the chart [top line: ‘2503 E’] I’d suggest the ‘frequency of 1253 years’ could be the half-period of the 2503 year cycle i.e. 1251.5 years, a difference of only 0.0012%.

With the ‘Jose frequency of 178.8 years’ being the mean period of 9 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions (by definition), we see from the chart that 1251.5 years would be 63 J-S, since it’s half the full period of 2503 years or 126 J-S [= 63 * 2].

Therefore the two periods would be in a simple ratio of 1:7.
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Electric vehicles still in the foothills 

Posted: January 14, 2017 by oldbrew in government, ideology, Travel
Tags:
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Credit: plugincars.com

Credit: plugincars.com


As the author suggests, the wishful thinking of policy makers in the world’s better-off countries shows little sign of turning into success ‘on the ground’ when it comes to electric vehicles. Public concerns about cost, range, battery life, recharging and so on are not going away.

An article in Power Engineering International magazine in 2013 by Penny Hitchin identified progress in the development of electric vehicles, as well as the barriers to progress, writes PEI’s Diarmaid Williams.

Four years later, despite a relative surge in uptake of these vehicles, much of the same barriers remain. It’s anticipated that the evolution of the electric vehicle will transform the nature of electric power, but this evolution is unfolding at a slower rate than perhaps anticipated, or desired given the political expediency to decarbonise.

When Hitchin penned her piece, Charging ahead: EVs and the grid, there were 130,000 electric vehicles in the US. In December 2016 that figure was 542,000, according to Recode website, so there is an incremental rise, even if it’s not as rapid as hoped. The same problems are besetting countries around the world in moving away from fossil fuels and capitalising on the extraordinary progress of renewable power.

It’s a similar situation for cars.
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