25 years, 25 Yankees: Building a roster with one player from each team since 1992

Pick one franchise. One guy from each of the last 25 years. No repeated players. Must form a coherent 25-man. Don't cheat on positions. Go.

— Russell A. Carleton (@pizzacutter4) January 27, 2017

Coming up with fresh baseball content in January and February is difficult, but thankfully, there are those like Baseball Prospectus' Russell Carleton to supply ideas. This one is a fun exercise, selecting one player from each Yankees team from 1992-2016 to fill out, as he phrases it, a coherent entire 25-man roster without any repeats. Here we go:

1992: Melido Perez (Starting Pitcher)

That's right, Melido Perez! He was the bright spot on a 76-86 team. This was his first year in pinstripes after being acquired for Steve Sax, and boy did he shine. At 26 years of age, the righty delivered a 2.87 ERA and 3.05 FIP in just under 250 (!) innings, good for 6 WAR. The Yankees must have thought they had a long-term ace on their hands, but unfortunately, Perez was never the same and pitched his final big league season in 1995.

1993: Randy Velarde (Bench - Utility)

One of my ground rules is to not include a full-time regular on the bench. So, we'll start the bench with an ideal utility player: 1993 Randy Velarde. Despite missing nearly two months of the season due to injury, Velarde got into 85 games, 16 as a pinch-hitter. He amassed impressive numbers, recording 2.2 WAR thanks to a sturdy .301/.360/.469 (123 wRC+) batting line in 253 plate appearances. With the ability to play all over the infield and outfield, he might be this squad's best bench player. The '93 squad was a pretty solid team, winning 88 games while falling short of the playoffs. There certainly were some good options on the 1993 squad to choose from (I had Jimmy key in my first iteration), but this is a partly a strategic selection to make room for others.

1994: Paul O'Neill (Right Field)

I feel like we could say this about a lot of players in 1994, but I wish we could have seen what stats O'Neill would have wound up with had the strike not prematurely ended the season. And obviously, Yankees fans will never know the fate of its team that was 70-43, first place in the AL East, when the season was cut short. Oh well. At least we can enjoy O'Neill's ridiculous numbers. Take a gander at this: in 443 trips to the plate, O'Neill hit 20 home runs and slashed .359/.460/.603 (171 wRC+), all good for 4.3 WAR. This is an easy choice for my starting right fielder.

1995: Darryl Strawberry (Bench - Outfield)

This is my next thinking ahead/strategic choice. I could have gone Bernie Williams here (133 wRC+, 6.4 WAR), but took a different path. Darryl Strawberry is a bit of a wonky pick, because he only played in 32 games that season after debuting in early August. Nonetheless, his .276/.364/.448 (115 wRC+) line makes him a nice left-handed option off the bench.

1996: Mariano Rivera (Relief Pitcher)

Ironically, Mariano Rivera's best season was as a set-up man for John Wetteland on the World Champion 1996 Yankees. In 107.2 dominant innings, Rivera posted a 2.09 ERA and 1.88 FIP while setting a career high in WAR (4.3). He had plenty of similarly dominant years on a per-inning basis, but I'll take this version of Rivera for my club given the workload he bore.

1997: Andy Pettitte (Starting Pitcher)

Andy was dandy (apologies John Sterling) in 1997, posting a 2.88 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 240.1 innings pitched (7.2 WAR). He finished fifth in Cy Young voting. His 25 year-old campaign was easily the best of his career with the Yankees, though many more good ones followed.

1998: Bernie Williams (Center Field)

1998 was Bernie Williams' best offensive season with the Yankees. He hit .339/.422/.575 (158 wRC+), swatted 26 dingers, stole 15 bases, and won the batting title. It wasn't his top season per WAR (4.9), but it was still an excellent season during the Yankees 114-win regular year.

1999: Derek Jeter (Shortstop)

You knew he'd be on here eventually. Derek Jeter's 1999 season is the highlight of his career, when he set career-bests in the following categories: home runs, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wRC+, WAR...the list goes on. A 7.4 WAR player with a 156 wRC+ at shortstop? Easy call. He was the best player on that championship team.

2000: Mike Stanton (Relief Pitcher)

Here's another strategic pick. Though the Yankees topped the Mets in the World Series in 2000, they weren't really that good of a club. At least, not up to standard with years prior. They won only 87 games after an ugly September freefall, but fortunately that was enough to win the division. This isn't to say there weren't good options to choose from on the 2000 team (Jorge Posada, 6.1 WAR or Bernie Williams, 4.9 WAR), but I'm saving Posada for later and I preferred Bernie's 1998 campaign. I'm taking a reliever. I was torn between Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson, but ultimately went with the former. Stanton is going to be the second lefty in my pen (you'll see the primary one later). Though Nelson was better by ERA (2.45 vs. 4.10), Stanton had the advantage in FIP (3.03 vs. 3.49). 

2001: Mike Mussina (Starting Pitcher)

In his first season in the Bronx, the Moose lived up to his billing from free agency. In 228.2 frames, Mike Mussina accumulated 6.9 WAR with a 3.15 ERA and 2.92 FIP. Though his teammate, Roger Clemens, took home the Cy Young award that year (pitcher wins are the best, guys), Mussina was the best pitcher on that year's American League champions.

2002: Jason Giambi (Designated Hitter)

Another year, another newly minted free agent signing as my selection. Jason Giambi split time between first base and designated hitter (a near 50/50 split), but I'm going to utilize him in the DH role. He was a beast in 2002, crushing 41 home runs on the heels of a .314/.435/.598 (175 wRC+) triple-slash. His 6.6 WAR made it his best season in pinstripes.

2003: Jorge Posada (Catcher)

I told you before that I was waiting to use Jorge Posada, and here he is. The switch-hitting backstop finished third in MVP voting that season thanks to a career-high 30 home runs and 6.0 WAR. My favorite memory of Jorge from 2003 was his bloop-hit off of Pedro Martinez in game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to tie the game in the 8th.

2004: Hideki Matsui (Left Field)

This isn't the best all-around season by a Yankees' left fielder in the last 25 years, but it's the best offensively. Hideki Matsui posted a 140 wRC+ behind a 31 homer season and a .298/.390/.552 batting line. It was his second year with the club and his best in his seven seasons with the Bombers.

2005: Tom Gordon (Relief Pitcher)

Another strategic choice. Alex Rodriguez won the MVP award this year, but I'm waiting to use him later. Other players with top seasons, like Jeter, Giambi, and Rivera have already been used. So I'm going with Flash here, who posted an excellent 2.57 ERA and solid 3.68 FIP in 80.2 innings. He was actually better in 2004, but still a good member of the bullpen in 2005.

2006: Scott Proctor (Relief Pitcher)

This pick makes me chuckle a tad, but Proctor was a valuable and durable piece of the bullpen this year. Of course, he wasn't the same after eclipsing 100 innings in 2006, but we'll always remember him as Joe Torre's go to guy that season. His 3.52 ERA and 1.2 WAR works for me, and allows me to bide my time to fill my roster with better players going forward.

2007: Alex Rodriguez (Third Base)

I wish that I could watch the 2007 team again. It was one of my favorites despite a disappointing end in the ALDS. A-Rod put together his second MVP season with the Yankees, this one being the best of the two. Rodriguez' 2007 is arguably the best season by a third baseman ever. Need I say more?

2008: Brett Gardner (Bench - Outfield)

Under new manager Joe Girardi, the 2008 Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993. It was a transitional year in a sense, though it's funny to say that when the team won 89 ballgames. It was a few key players final seasons with the team (Mussina, Giambi, and Bobby Abreu). There was some new blood that emerged that year, including Brett Gardner, my choice for 2008 in this exercise. He hit poorly (54 wRC+) in 42 games, but I like this version of Gardy as a defensive replacement and pinch runner for this fantasy squad. After all, he won't need many at-bats in the lineup I'm trotting out.

2009: Mark Teixeira (First Base)

For first base, I initially thought about 1997 Tino Martinez, who slugged 44 home runs. However, Pettitte was just too good that season to pass up. Giambi wasn't an option as I prefer him at DH, and Don Mattingly's 1992-1995 seasons were nothing to write home about. So, 2009 Mark Teixeira it is, who was essentially equivalent to '97 Tino. 39 home runs (to Tino's 44), 142 wRC+ (to Tino's 141), and 5.1 WAR (to Tino's 5.3) make them hardly any different. I think we sometimes underappreciate how important Teixeira was to that 2009 championship club because of his decline in the seasons thereafter.

2010: Francisco Cervelli (Bench - Catcher)

My roster needs a backup catcher, and 2010 Francisco Cervelli is a good fit. He had a passable bat in 317 trips to the dish that season (92 wRC+, .279/.359/.335) and offered solid defense. Not the most exciting pick, I know, but a necessary one.

2011: CC Sabathia (Starting Pitcher)

I could have gone with a handful of different seasons with CC Sabathia, but this one was the best. His 6.4 WAR in 237.1 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 2.88 FIP was sheer brilliance. I had also considered Curtis Granderson for this season, the year he broke out for 41 home runs and 6.8 WAR. However, with Bernie in tow in center field and 2011 being Sabathia's best season, I went with the big left-hander.

2012: Robinson Cano (Second Base)

Robbie's penultimate season with the Yankees was his best. After flirting with 30 home runs in the two seasons prior, Cano blasted a career high 33 dingers in 2012. His 149 wRC+ was also a lifetime best, a result of a fantastic .313/.379/.550 slash-line. In the last 25 years, Cano has no competition for the position. An easy call. This serves as a reminder of how much I miss watching him everyday.

2013: David Robertson (Relief Pitcher)

D-Rob's best season in New York was actually 2011, but 2013 was a stellar one too. He boasted a 2.04 ERA in 66.1 innings as a bridge to Mariano. Robertson posted a gaudy 87.5% strand rate, living up to his Houdini nickname.

2014: Dellin Betances (Relief Pitcher)

Another year, another reliever. The Yankees have had plenty of great relievers in the past 25 years, and many of them have been concentrated in this decade. Dellin Betances is yet another pitcher fitting that category. His first full season in the bullpen was Betances' best, though it's not like he's declined ever since. In 2014, he threw 90 innings and finished with 3.2 WAR on a 1.40 ERA and an absurd 39.6% strikeout rate.

2015: Andrew Miller (Relief Pitcher)

The bullpen trend continues. As I alluded to earlier, I had another southpaw reliever in mind, and Andrew Miller is that guy. Despite missing nearly a month of the season, Miller was nails in 2015. With a 40.7% strikeout-rate, 2.04 ERA, and 2.0 WAR along with no platoon split, there isn't anything wrong with the lanky left-hander. 

2016: Masahiro Tanaka (Starting Pitcher)

Last but not least, 2016. On an 84-win team that sold at the deadline, there aren't many great options. Obviously, Gary Sanchez stands out on a per at-bat basis, but Posada is still the clear cut choice for starting catcher. And, under my ground rules, Sanchez can't be the backup catcher. Thus, I'm going with the best overall player, Masahiro Tanaka. There were other better starting pitching seasons that I left off this list, but I did it purposefully because Tanaka was the best value from 2016. Besides, a 3.07 ERA and 4.6 WAR in just under 200 innings is pretty, pretty good for a fifth starter.

The Results:

C: 2003 Jorge Posada, 2010 Francisco Cervelli

1B: 2009 Mark Teixeira

2B: 2012 Robinson Cano

3B: 2007 Alex Rodriguez

SS: 1999 Derek Jeter

LF: 2004 Hideki Matsui, 2008 Brett Gardner

CF: 1998 Bernie Williams, 2008 Brett Gardner

RF: 1994 Paul O'Neill, 1995 Darryl Strawberry

DH: 2002 Jason Giambi

IF/OF: 1993 Randy Velarde

SP: 1997 Andy Pettitte, 2001 Mike Mussina, 2011 CC Sabathia, 1992 Melido Perez, 2016 Masahiro Tanaka

RP: 1995 Mariano Rivera, 2014 Dellin Betances, 2015 Andrew Miller, 2013 David Robertson, 2005 Tom Gordon, 2006 Scott Proctor, 2000 Mike Stanton

Podcast Episode 71: Michael Pineda

EJ welcomes Derek Alpin to the blog. They discuss some recent New York Yankees news, EJ's Michael Pineda article, and the remaining free agents available on the market. 

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Three Reasons Why I'm Betting on Pineda in 2017

Michael Pineda was bad last year. Although he finally stayed healthy for a full season, the results were disappointing. Pineda pitched only 175 innings in 32 starts, posting a 4.82 ERA. Famously (now at least), he led the American League in strikeout rate, and posted a solid 3.79 FIP. and stellar 3.30 xFIP. The gulf between his ERA and FIP/xFIP led to quite a bit of disagreement about how good Pineda was in WAR measurements.

How good will Pineda be next year? I think he's a good bet to be very good, for three reasons.

His ERA Overstates How Bad He Was Last Year

It sure felt like Pineda was giving up a lot of runs last year. 4.82 may not have seemed that high at other points in history, but it felt high last year. This in part due to the more offensive run environment that AL starters faced in 2016. As recently as the 2014 season, the average AL starter posted a 3.92 ERA. In 2016, the average AL starting pitcher posted a 4.42 ERA. Pineda was 9% worse than league average. That's bad, but not horrible. 

The ordering of events made Pineda seem worse as well. He started off the season very poorly with an ERA peaking at 6.92 in late May. It came down as he improved, including doing some of his best work in September. 

He Was Probably Very Unlucky Last Season

The ERA thing was pretty clear and uncontroversial. This is a little more debateable.

Pineda's very good 3.79 FIP masks what could have been an even better season. The theory behind using a metric like FIP involves crediting both the defense and pitcher for defensive contributions or failures. ERA gives 100% of the credit to the pitcher on the mound for defense. We all know intuitively that this is not true. The defenders on the field deserve a lot of credit. Luck and other exogenous factors (like umpires) do as well. The criticism of FIP is that it is too simplistic. A lot more happens on the field that is to some degree under the control of the pitcher than just strikeouts, walks, and home runs.

Luckily, we have better statistics than FIP. Baseball Prospectus puts out a statistic called Deserved Runs Average. Think of it as FIP on steroids. I highly recommend this primer on DRA. I won't explain everything here, but to give you an idea of how thorough it is, DRA controls for (among other things): park factors, weather, strength of opposition, framing, controlling the running game, sequencing, relief pitcher inherited runners, and passed balls.

That's a lot! These components and more are fed into a model of three seasons of baseball, then used to estimate the performance of a pitcher. Since we have a really clear outcome measure (runs allowed), we can train a model to do a very good job predicting the future. DRA is really good. 

Who were the top players in the MLB by DRA last season?

What!? Michael Pineda was the best pitcher in the American League on a per-inning basis last season? Yeah, I don't believe it either. There is a lot of face validity to the rankings. Jose Fernandez (RIP), Chris Sale, Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard were definitely some of the starting pitchers in the majors last season. However, Pineda is not the only name that stands out on the list. Robbie Ray is the other big one. 

Here's what I believe is going on: Pineda was both unlucky and the system is missing something about his performance. There's a lot of ways that pitchers can be unlucky that we don't normally think of. Relief pitchers can allow a lot of extra inherited runners to score. They could end up drawing the tough matchups or away ballparks. They could pitch on nights with bad weather conditions, etc.

There's also a lot of ways pitchers can pitch worse than a FIP metric might predict. They could allow hard contact in bunches, rather than independently. They could allow more hard contact in general than the average pitcher. 

My bet is that there is some signal and some noise in Pineda's incredibly DRA. Pineda is a good bet to be much better than 2016, but not a good bet to be as good as his DRA might predict.

Pineda Still Has a Lot of Talent

I think one factor that is easy to forget about is how good Michael Pineda's stuff is. His fastball averaged 94 mph last season, 13th best in the majors. His slider graded out as 17th best in the majors as well. His command and control aren't bad either. More broadly, Pineda was until fairly recently considered one of the more talented young pitchers in the league, derailed more by injury than anything else. Jesus Montero was a big deal when we traded him for Pineda.

Talent obviously does not automatically lead to performance. However, statistical theory suggests we shouldn't ignore it. Pineda is still relatively new to the major leagues, even though it feels like he has been around forever. There is a sphere is statistics called Bayesian. Without boring you too much, Bayesian statistics make predicts the future based upon both new information (Pineda's pitching outcomes) and our prior expectations about how good Pineda is at pitching. When we receive new information, we update those expectations, but don't completely throw them out. 

There's statistical reasons to believe Pineda is actually pretty good (possibly great). There are plausible reasons to believe he has the physical ability to be pretty good (possibly great). His performance (measured by ERA at least) has been poor over the last two seasons. Given the first two, there is some significant probability that the poor performance is caused by random chance, rather than poor talent for baseball. 

Tuesday Afternoon Linkapalooza

We are a scant three weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and just a month shy of the Yankees first Spring Training game (which will be against the Philadelphia Phillies). And, for those of you who are interested in the World Baseball Classic - as you should be - we're just over forty days away from the first match-up, between Israel and South Korea. In short, the end of this long, ephemeral period between the bursting bubble of free agency and actual baseball is nearly at its end.

With that in mind, here are some links to whet your appetite:

• Brian Cashman believes that Didi Gregorius has yet to reach his offensive ceiling.
• The MLB Draft order has officially been set, now that all of the free agents to receive a qualifying offer have been signed. The Yankees will pick 16th overall.
• The Yankees were never really in on Chris Sale (if they were in at all), as they were unwilling to give up Gary Sanchez (duh).
• Keith Law ranked the Yankees second in his farm system rankings, noting "there's no weakness here."
• Masahiro Tanaka will not participate in aforementioned WBC.
• The Angels have reportedly agreed to a multiyear deal with Luis Valbuena (one of my favorite free agents), though the details have not quite been sorted out. 

In much more somber news, Yordano Ventura and Andy Marte passed away this weekend as a result of separate car accidents. There have been some moving tributes written for both - I was particularly fond of this piece by Grant Brisbee, this piece by Jeff Passan, and this piece by Sam Mellinger. Major League Baseball has lost another dynamic young talent, and a former top prospect that never gave up his dream; all that we can do is send our thoughts and prayers to their families and friends.

Does Pedro Alvarez Make Sense for the Yankees?

The Yankees are walking a tight rope this season: on one hand, they would like to shed long-term commitments to older players and play some of the young talent they’ve developed over the last few years, but they are also trying to contend.  As Derek wrote yesterday, while the Yankees plan to come into next season relying on Greg Bird for left-handed power production, he is coming back from major shoulder surgery.  While I am fairly bullish on both Matt Holliday and Didi Gregorius, neither is the traditional left-handed bomber that the Yankees typically employ.  As the offseason has progressed, it has become apparent that teams have not been willing to pay for one-dimensional sluggers, and the ones that have signed have signed contracts with significantly less guaranteed money than most observers reasonably expected.  With that in mind, does it make sense for the Yankees to dip into that market?  While there are many quality power options, the player that I think would make the most sense is Pedro Alvarez.

Pedro Alvarez is was once considered one of the consensus top 25 prospects in all of baseball when he came through the Pirates system.  While he’s been a solid major leaguer, his struggles against left-handed pitching, strikeouts defense have significantly cut into his value throughout his career.  According to Baseball-Reference, Alvarez has a career .606 OPS vs. LHP, with his overall tOPS+ (his split OPS+ relative to his overall OPS+) vs. LHP is merely 62 (!), 48 points below his overall OPS+.  Meanwhile, he has struck out at a 28.7 % rate over the course of his MLB career, although he has hovered between 25-26% the last couple of seasons.  As other teams have recognized, Alvarez is a flawed player.

While Alvarez may be a flawed player, he can still be a useful player.  He generally posts walk rates in the 9-10 % range; he can spell a starter at both 1B and 3B – something the Yankees could definitely use to give Headley and Bird more days off this year; and most importantly, he can do this:

Wow.  Alvarez has the type of power that plays in any park, save for maybe Yellowstone.  Alvarez can miss a pitch by a little, and still hit the ball out.  That is a skill that plays up for left-handed batters in Yankee Stadium with the short right field porch.  For his career, Alvarez has posted an ISO of .211 overall, however those numbers have been up the last two years, with a .227 ISO in 2015 and .255 in 2016.  In 2016, that ISO rose to .271 against RHP.  If the Yankees were to sign Alvarez, he can definitely give Holliday days off against tough righties.

Overall, it’s not hard to find Alvarez 300 AB even before we consider the risk of injury to Headley, Bird, and Holliday.  Alvarez is overmatched as an everyday option, but he could be an excellent piece as a part-time player.  If the Yankees carry a couple of long-relievers as opposed to three middle-relief types, they could squeeze him onto the bench even with the presence of Tyler Austin.  What would it take to sign him?  My guess is that given the state of the market, Alvarez can be had for a 1 year deal somewhere in the $5-7 million range.  Alvarez can help the Yankees this year, he doesn’t stretch the budget, but he could cut into the kids’ playing time to some extent.  Depending on how low the price for Alvarez goes, he may make sense for the Yankees.

The Yankees' lack of left-handed power and the question of Greg Bird

Mark Teixeira. Jason Giambi. Robinson Cano. Hideki Matsui. Curtis Granderson. These are just a few of the names featured in Yankees lineups in this millennium. One of the main traits these five have in common, along with many other sluggers on recent Yankees teams, is that all of them bat left-handed (or switch-hit). Left-handed power hitters taking advantage of the House that Ruth Built's short porch in right field has been a staple of successful Yankees teams not only recently, but also throughout the franchise's history. This year, the familiar sight of a lefty power might be notably absent.

There are plenty of left-handed options in the lineup in 2017, but only one of them truly has the potential to be a long ball threat. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Chase Headley have all shown flashes of power at different points of their careers, but it would be foolish to count on any of them exceeding 20 home runs this season. 15 might even be a stretch. Of that group, ZiPS projects Didi to hit the most dingers (15), while Ellsbury, Gardner, and Headley are expected to launch 9, 11, and 13, respectively. There's no better way to generate offense than hitting a home run, and we can already see that four of the nine regulars are probably going to be below average in doing so. There is one lefty, however, that might be able to pick up for the rest of his fellow lefties' slack: Greg Bird.

As a prospect, Bird had the ideal pedigree for a future left-handed slugger at Yankee Stadium. Then, in 2015, he impressed in his debut in pinstripes, when he blasted 11 long balls in 178 plate appearances and boasted a .268 ISO. That's the type of power we all had been dreaming of from Bird. It's not like he was one dimensional, either. He showed the ability to reach base (.343 OBP, 10.7% BB-rate) and spray the ball around the field. To everyone's dismay, the first baseman needed shoulder surgery in the offseason, which cost him all of 2016. That gets us to the crux of the Yankees' left-handed power issue. The Yankees need Bird to pick up where he left off in 2015, which is a tall order for a 24 year-old returning from a serious shoulder operation.

The encouraging news is that ZiPS projects 18 home runs from Bird in merely 397 plate appearances, or one in roughly every 22 times to the plate. In a full season (i.e. 600 PA), that translates to 27 taters. Beware of the full season prorated total, though. There's a good reason that ZiPS doesn't think Bird has a full season in him, and it's primarily because of the layoff in 2016. Aside from the possibility of another injury (Bird's had his fair share in the minors, even before the surgery), it's possible that Bird needs more time at Triple-A to regain comfort against live pitching in a less pressurized situation.

Bird did get a taste of game action in the Arizona Fall League a few months ago, but understandably struggled as he shook off the rust. His .215/.346/.354 (102 wRC+) reflected some difficulty in finding his power stroke, though at least his on-base ability was still present. It was a far cry from his 2014 MVP performance in the same league (156 wRC+).

Whether his time in fall ball was enough to get Bird back up to speed will remain to be seen. Fortunately, he's had all of the winter to continue preparation and will have plenty of reps in spring training. In a perfect world, Bird doesn't miss a beat and come Opening Day, he's penciled in to the heart of the order and ready to crank out 25 bombs while exhibiting patience in the batters' box. We can dream, right?

In reality, there are going to be some bumps in the road. It's a big ask to pencil in Bird as the everyday first baseman in the middle of the lineup. Moreover, I think we forget that he was still getting his feet wet at the big league level in 2015. Though he raked right out of the gate, he only had 178 plate appearances and also showed some vulnerability with his propensity to strikeout. Most prospects, even those who have immediate success after debuting, experience rough patches in the big leagues before truly settling in. Bird (probably) wasn't going to be an exception, and when you tack on a lost season because of injury, it's important to temper expectations for 2017. Really, it might not be until 2018 that Bird feels like himself again. Should that be the case, the Yankees dearth in left-handed power will be glaring. It's not a death knell, as there's no requirement for winning teams to possess such a characteristic. Yet, for the Yankees, winning and left-handed power seems to go hand in hand.

Episode 70: HOF Results, Yankee Designated Hitter

EJ and Scott discuss the Hall of Fame voting results. Tim Raines is in! Later, they ponder if the Yankees missed an opportunity for a cheap, higher quality DH when they signed Matt Holliday.

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Hall of Fame Voting: Writers Still Don't Get It

Sitrep: Hall of Fame voting is complete. Congratulations to Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell and Pudge Rodriguez for a much deserved call to the Hall. However, two of the best players you ever saw play baseball still didn't make the cut. 

As detailed in last week’s podcast, I would have voted both Clemens and Bonds in before they hung up their spikes. The reason why this bothers me is the same reason why I don’t focus on stats in baseball, even though as an engineer, I am by nature a numbers guy (call me if you want to talk aerospace electronics, orbital slots or SPC - I can do "nerd" with anyone). To me, Hall of Fame voting emphasizes how little joy baseball writers take in watching baseball.  They hone in on numbers, historical context or personality. None of these elements influence me in buying tickets to a game, or subscribing to MLB.TV. I'm not investing my time in baseball for a moral compass, history lesson or stats-immersion experience.  I'm in it to see athletic greatness. 

When you evaluate the worthiness of Bonds and Clemens, you don’t need the numbers or the off-field case studies. Just watch the tape. Pop in Game 4 of the 2000 ALCS, and tell me if the barrel-chested righty in Yankee gray isn’t the best pitcher you’ve ever seen. 

Side note: how many all-star strikeout victims did you catch in that firework show?

Oh yea, and the other guy basically filled McCovey cove with Rawlings leather and reminded us that the bases-loaded-intentional-walk was actually an option.

Feel better? Good.

If the Hall is about capturing greatness, I don’t know how it’s taking so long for these two to get an invite. Here's hoping for next year.

Also, isn’t it universally hated when home plate umpires try to steal the spotlight during a game?

Couldn’t we say the same about baseball writers in the Hall of Fame voting process?

Last note: Writers were suspicious of Bagwell's 6 foot - 200 lb frame hitting bashing 30 homers a year, but no one flinches at Pudge, at mighty 5'9"-205 lb, averaging 27+ homers per season from '99 to '01. I don't get it.

What if the Yankees had gone all-in on 2017?

What you see is what you get. That's essentially what Brian Cashman said a week ago, assessing the odds of the Yankees standing pat for the remainder of the offseason at 99.9% (EJ wrote about this last week). It's probably not a playoff team, but it's not too far out of contention. Sitting in the high 70s or low 80s in the win forecast is usually the worst place for a team to be, as not only is such a team not good enough to make the playoffs, but also not poor enough to obtain a high draft pick. This Yankees club is a different case, as there are a plethora of intriguing young players at the major and minor league levels that signify a bright future. What if, though, the Yankees' eschewed its long-term strategy and instead went all-in on 2017?

Let's travel to an alternate universe. One where everything that occurred through the end of the 2016 season remains the same with the exception of the Yankees' plans for the offseason. In this world, instead of patiently waiting for the accumulated prospects to blossom, the front office is ready to harvest its crops on the trade market. And that luxury tax? Who cares! Forget tapering the payroll, the Steinbrenners are now willing to cut blank checks to any free agents they desire. Further, they're also willing to eat money on certain existing contracts, to an extent. No, I'm not talking as much as Jacoby Ellsbury's contract, but others are certainly in play. It's time for a lavish and extravagant shopping spree.

Below are five transactions that happened in this fantasy world. After highlighting each trade or signing, I've provided a before and after look at the Fangraphs' Steamer Depth Charts in order to assess how much of an upgrade each move would be. Without further ado:

1. Trade for Chris Sale

Gleyber Torres? Sure. Clint Frazier? OK. Aaron Judge? Fine. Blake Rutherford? Fair enough. Justus Sheffield? Take him. Maybe it doesn't cost quite that much, or maybe it costs more than that. But in this universe, Cashman trades whatever it takes to get Sale. Fortunately, the farm system is deep enough that there's still quite a bit left over.

With Sale, the Yankees go from this...

...to this:

Approximately a 2.5 win upgrade. Maybe more if you're pessimistic about guys like Luis Severino in Chad Green, as I noted in my last piece on Jose Quintana. Of course, the Yankees starting point win projection would be lower under such an assumption.

2. Trade for Brian Dozier

With whatever prospects the Yankees have remaining, the organization grabs Dozier from Minnesota. After this deal and Sale already acquired, the Yankees' top ten prospects would probably all be gone. But who cares? The time to win is now.

What happens to Starlin Castro? Since money is no object, the Steinbrenners eat the majority of his salary in a separate trade. They decide to give up on a player who had shown promise in Chicago and replace him with the slugging second baseman in Dozier.

Adding Dozier and subtracting Castro brings the Yankees from this...

...to this.

Almost a two win boost. Playoffs, here we come!

3. Sign Yoenis Cespedes

With Aaron Judge undoubtedly included in one of the previous two trades, it's time to find his replacement. And no, Aaron Hicks is not going to step in. If you're a fan of the trope "When George was alive...", it's your lucky day. Like father like son, Hal wants to spend big to get the biggest name, and Cespedes is that guy.

Using Judge as a piece to get Sale or Dozier and replacing him with Cespedes changes the right field forecast from this...

...to this.

Only about a win better. It's something, though. And really, this is an upgrade over Hicks more than Judge, since the latter was used to acquire either Sale or Dozier.

4. Sign Kenley Jansen (in addition to Aroldis Chapman)

Another year, another elite bullpen trio. Jansen would take Andrew Miller's spot, who was one of the big three entering 2016. This, of course, is in addition to the Chapman signing the Yankees made in reality.

Signing Jansen while eliminating replacement level innings thrown by Richard Bleier, Domingo German, Dietrich Enns, and "The Others" changes the Yankees' bullpen estimate from this...

...to this.

Best bullpen in baseball? Best bullpen in baseball. But we're not done, yet.

5. Sign Justin Turner

Chase Headley's a nice player, but Turner is better. Like what happened with Castro, the Yankees eat the remainder of Headley's contract in another swap.

Dumping Headley and signing Turner improves the hot corner from this...

...to this.

Tack on another 1.5 WAR.

Before we get to the finished product...

If you've made it this far, you've probably noticed or questioned a few things. First, let me just say that this isn't supposed to be completely realistic. Nonetheless, I'll try to explain a couple of working assumptions.

One might be how the Sale and Dozier trades were pulled off without including some or all of Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, or Luis Severino. It's an assumption I'm making that the Yankees would be able to pull off those deals without trading those pieces. Sanchez is by far the most valuable of this trio, and I'm labeling him untouchable. Severino's (disappointing 2016) and Bird's (shoulder) trade values are down, so I'm going forward with the idea that they won't be as useful in acquiring Sale or Dozier as those down on the farm. I'm not saying the front office wouldn't part with Bird or Severino to make the trades I've hypothesized, but rather, I'm assuming they can get done without them (and Sanchez). I mean, the farm system is arguably the best in the sport, right? The other options should be able to get these deals done.

Additionally, one might also wonder why I passed on making a change at designated hitter. After taking a look at other free agent options, like Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, it turns out that neither are significant upgrades over Matt Holliday and Bird in terms of WAR. So I'm assuming that the Yankees sign Holliday, just like real life. Saves me some time.

The Projected Results

These five moves add 6.8 WAR to the Yankees' projection, which is less than I had anticipated before starting this piece. That pulls the Yankees up to at least a 90-win squad, perhaps more when considering the shift in power by taking Sale away from the Red Sox. Ultimately, this is a surefire playoff team, which is precisely what this world's Yankees organization is going for. Assuming good health, here's how the 25-man roster would ideally shake out:

C: Gary Sanchez/Austin Romine

1B/DH: Greg Bird/Matt Holliday/Tyler Austin

2B: Brian Dozier/Ronald Torreyes

3B: Justin Turner/Ronald Torreyes

SS: Did Gregorius/Ronald Torreyes

OF: Brett Gardner/Jacoby Ellsbury/Yoenis Cespedes/Aaron Hicks/Tyler Austin

SP: Chris Sale/Masahiro Tanaka/Michael Pineda/CC Sabathia/Luis Severino

RP: Aroldis Chapman/Dellin Betances/Kenley Jansen/Tyler Clippard/Adam Warren/Tommy Layne/Scranton Shuttle Reliever

That's a pretty fun looking team. A handful of excellent right-handed hitters, a lethal bullpen, and an elite one-two punch at the top of the pitching staff. Perhaps the rotation could still use a little help at the back-end and the lineup could use some lefty power, but nonetheless, this universe's squad is a strong one.

The organization's future is weakened, but not totally crushed. Sale's friendly contract and the young core of Sanchez, Gregorius, and Bird is still promising. The farm system may go from near the top to the bottom of the league's best, but there are still young assets at the Major League level.

Is all of this realistic? Well, no, because none of this happened. But could it have? The trades probably could have happened, given the organization's lush young talent. What's most unrealistic in this scenario is the free-spending in free agency and willingness to eat dead money. 

The point of this wasn't to be completely realistic. It was intended to be fun. It's a loosely plausible look at what could have been. In another sense, it helps illustrate just how far the Yankees, as presently constructed, are from being a playoff team. That isn't to say that they have no chance, as the team's current projected win total isn't far out of the playoff picture. It's just not likely. Even though we've grown accustomed to the organization's World Series or bust mantra, we can still enjoy the 2017 club despite it being an underdog.

Podcast Episode 69: Is Cashman Done?

EJ and Stacey welcome Jim to the podcast and the blog. They first interrogate Jim for his position on current baseball events, then discuss whether the Yankees are done for the offseason, and finish by debating if the Yankees should pay up for Jose Quintana. 

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