Some Good News for USPS

First-class mail volume has dropped since its 2001 peak, but it's not all bad news for USPS. In contrast to the first-class mail decline, parcel delivery is booming. Between 2010 and 2016, the number of packages handled by the Postal Service climbed from 3.1 billion to 5.2 billion—a 68 percent increase. Thanks, Amazon!

Source: USPS, A Decade of Facts and Figures

Making Health Insurance Unaffordable

How much would essential health benefits cost if they were no longer required, as they currently are under the Affordable Care Act, and only those who opted for the service financed the cost? An Urban Institute study has calculated the cost, and it's steep.

The average nongroup marketplace premium was $4,700 in 2017, reports the Urban Institute. But start cherry-picking benefits, and premiums will be much higher. Take maternity care for example. Maternity care accounts for just $278 of the $4,700 annual cost of a typical health insurance plan—not all that much. But if health insurance buyers could opt out of maternity care benefits so that only those who needed maternity care had to pay for it, then those who chose maternity care would see their annual health insurance premium rise by $13,388.

Cherry picking health benefits will greatly increase the cost of health insurance for those who need essential services...

Additional health insurance premium cost if only users finance the service
Inpatient care: $19,071
Maternity care: $13,388
Outpatient care: $5,755
Emergency care: $4,251
Rehabilitative care: $2,247
Office-based care: $1,947
Prescription drugs: $1,836

Source: Urban Institute, The Implications of Cutting Essential Health Benefits: An Analysis of Nongroup Insurance Premiums Under the ACA

The Decline of First Class Mail

First-class mail is in a steep decline, not surprisingly. The number of pieces of first class mail handled by the U.S. Postal Service peaked in 2001 at nearly 104 billion. By 2016, the number had slipped to 61 billion—a 41 percent decline and about what it was in 1981.

The biggest decline in first-class mail volume occurred after the introduction of the smartphone in 2007. Between 2007 and 2011, first-class mail fell by nearly 24 billion pieces—a decline of more than 5 billion pieces a year. Those years account for 56 percent of the overall decline in first-class mail volume since the 2001 peak. In more recent years, the decline in first-class mail volume has slowed to about 1.3 billion pieces a year.

Volume of first-class mail (in billions)
2016: 61.2
2015: 62.6
2011: 72.5
2007: 96.2
2001: 103.7 (peak year)

Source: USPS, Postage Rates and Historical Statistics

Big Decline in Reading, 2006 to 2016

Fewer Americans are reading on an average day, according to the American Time Use Survey. In every age group, a shrinking share is reading for personal interest as a primary activity on an average day. Overall, the percentage of Americans aged 15 or older who read on an average day fell from 26 percent in 2006 to 19 percent in 2016. The biggest drops have occurred among older Americans, with double-digit declines among people ranging in age from 45 to 74...

Percent reading on an average day, 2016 (and percentage point change since 2006)
Aged 15 to 19: 8.7% (–1.2)
Aged 20 to 24: 10.1% (–0.5)
Aged 25 to 34: 12.0% (–3.4)
Aged 35 to 44: 13.9% (–7.5)
Aged 45 to 54: 15.3% (–12.2)
Aged 55 to 64: 25.5% (–13.2)
Aged 65 to 74: 33.0% (–14.8)
Aged 75-plus: 46.1% (–8.6)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 American Time Use Survey

Household Income Volatility, 2009 to 2012

In the difficult three-year period between 2009 and 2012, when the United States was struggling to recover from the Great Recession, nearly half of households experienced a dramatic swing in their income—either up or down. A new Census Bureau report examines fluctuations in household income during that time period, using data from the longitudinal Survey of Income and Program Participation. While nearly half of households experienced income volatility, much of it was positive. Despite the difficult economy, the Census Bureau notes that more households saw their income rise than fall.

Change in household income, 2009 to 2012 (in 2012 dollars)
Increased 50 percent or more: 15.9%
Increased 25 percent or more: 24.4%
Changed less than 25 percent: 53.5%
Decreased 25 percent or more: 22.1%
Decreased 50 percent or more: 9.0%

The report also examines the demographic characteristics of households that moved into higher or lower income quintiles during those years.

Source: Census Bureau, Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Fluctuations in the U.S. Income Distribution: 2009–2012

Are Video Games Behind The Decline in Young Men's Work Hours?

Young men are working fewer hours than they once did, and a new study suggests a novel reason for the decline—better video games.

Between 2000 and 2015, the number of hours men aged 21 to 30 worked for pay fell 12 percent, report researchers in a National Bureau of Economic Research study. The percentage of young men who did not work at all, excluding full-time students, climbed from 8 to 15 percent during those years.

To find out why work hours fell, the researchers look at trends in the work hours and leisure time of young men between 2004–07 and 2012–15. As work hours fell, leisure time increased. Young men devoted three-quarters of their increased leisure time to gaming and computers. Using data from the Current Population Survey and the American Time Use Survey, the researchers test their theory that "improved leisure technology raised the return to non-market time and consequently increased the reservation wage of younger men." In other words, it takes more money than it once did to lure young men away from video games.

"Technology growth for recreational computer activities, by increasing the marginal value of leisure, accounts for 23 to 46 percent of the decline in market work for younger men during the 2000s," the researchers conclude.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men, Working Paper 23552 ($5)

Fewer Births in 46 States

The ongoing baby bust is occurring in 46 states. Nationally, the number of births fell 8.7 percent between 2007 (the year when births peaked at 4.3 million) and 2016 (3.9 million births). By state, the decline during those years is in the double digits in 15 states, with New Mexico seeing the biggest drop...

States with a double-digit decline in births, 2007 to 2016
19% decline: New Mexico
18% decline: Mississippi and Arizona
15% decline: Illinois
14% decline: Georgia, California, and Connecticut
13% decline: New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Rhode Island
12% decline: New Jersey, Nevada, and Vermont
10% decline: Idaho and Maine

The number of births increased in only four states and the District of Columbia between 2007 and 2016: South Dakota (up 0.1%), Alaska (1.4%), Washington (1.7%), D.C. (11.3%), and North Dakota (28.7%).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data

Going to College Leads to Postponed Parenting

One-third of the high school sophomores of 2002 were parents ten years later in 2012, according to the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002. The longitudinal survey is tracking a representative sample of 2002 high school sophomores as they confront the challenges of adulthood. One of the key findings is how big a role higher education plays in the timing of childbearing. Here are the percentages of 2002 high school sophomores who had become parents by 2012, by educational attainment...

69.6% of high school dropouts

53.0% of high school diploma only

40.5% of those with some college

35.4% of those with an associate's degree

12.8% of those with a bachelor's degree

9.1% of those with a graduate degree

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Early Millennials: The Sophomore Class of 2002 a Decade Later

Adults Under Age 45 Are Watching Less TV

Adults under age 45 are watching less TV on an average day than they did a decade ago, while those aged 45 or older are watching more. Overall, the amount of time people aged 15 or older spend watching television as a primary activity on an average day climbed from 2.57 hours in 2006 to 2.73 hours in 2016. Behind the increase is the aging of the population and the greater amount of time older Americans spend watching television. Here are the trends...

Hours per day spent watching TV in 2016 (and % change since 2006)
Aged 15 to 19: 1.94 (–8.1%)
Aged 20 to 24: 2.12 (–1.9%)
Aged 25 to 34: 1.95 (–11.4%)
Aged 35 to 44: 2.07 (–1.9%)
Aged 45 to 54: 2.66 (+11.8%)
Aged 55 to 64: 3.26 (+13.2%)
Aged 65 to 74: 4.10 (+7.0%)
Aged 75-plus: 4.33 (+3.6%)

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 American Time Use Survey

Walking for Transportation or Leisure

A growing percentage of Americans are walking for transportation or leisure, according to results of the National Health Interview Survey. When Americans were asked whether they had spent 10 or more minutes walking for transportation or leisure in the past seven days, a larger percentage had done so in 2015 than in 2005: 65 percent of women (up from 57 percent) and 63 percent of men (up from 54 percent).

Source: CDC, Walking for Transportation or Leisure among U.S. Women and Men—National Health Interview Survey, 2005–2015

Baby Bust Continues in 2016

The number of births in the United States fell to 3,941,109 in 2016, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. That's about 37,000 fewer births than in 2015. Except for a small increase in 2014, the number of births has declined in every year since 2007, when births hit a record high of 4.3 million.

Number of births (in 000s)
2016: 3,941
2015: 3,978 
2014: 3,988
2013: 3,932
2012: 3,953
2011: 3,954
2010: 3,999 (start of baby bust)
2009: 4,131
2008: 4,248
2007: 4,316 (record high)

The nation's fertility rate fell to 62.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, an all-time low. The birth rates for women in every age group under age 30 fell to record lows in 2016, while the birth rates for women aged 30 or older increased. 

Here's the most interesting thing: the birth rate for women aged 30 to 34—for the first time—was higher than the rate for women aged 25 to 29. The 25-to-29 age group had held the distinction of being the peak childbearing years since 1983, when it overtook the 20-to-24 age group. Clearly, the peak childbearing years can advance only so far, and the Millennial generation is testing the limits.   

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Provisional Data for 2016

Confidence in Newspapers Rises

The public's confidence in newspapers is on the rise, according a Gallup survey. The percentage of Americans who say they have "quite a lot" or a "great deal" of confidence in newspapers climbed to 27 percent in 2017, up from 20 percent last year. What's behind the growing confidence? Democrats. Here is the percentage of people with "quite a lot" or a "great deal" of confidence in newspapers by political affiliation and how confidence changed between 2016 and 2017...

Democrats
2017: 46%
2016: 28%
Change: +18 percentage points

Republicans
2017: 13%
2016: 16%
Change: –3 percentage points

"These party differences may represent a backlash against President Donald Trump's proclamation that the media are "the enemy of the people," says Gallup.

Source: Gallup, In US, Confidence in Newspapers Still Low but Rising

Teen Sexual Activity Has Declined

The percentage of never-married 15-to-19-year-olds who have ever had sexual intercourse has fallen over the years, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. The percentage of females aged 15 to 19 who have had sex fell from 51 to 42 percent between 1988 and 2011–15. Among males the percentage fell from 60 to 44 percent. When those who have not yet had sex are asked why they haven't, these are their main reasons...

Females
Against religion or morals: 35.3%
Haven't found the right person: 21.9%
Don't want to get pregnant: 19.3%
Don't want to get a sexually transmitted disease: 7.1%
In a relationship and waiting for right time: 6.2%

Males
Haven't found the right person: 28.5%
Against religion or morals: 27.9%
Don't want to get a girl pregnant: 21.2%
In a relationship and waiting for right time: 6.6%
Don't want to get a sexually transmitted disease: 4.7%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, Sexual Activity and Contraceptive Use among Teenagers in the United States, 2011–2015

Minority Majority in Youngest Generation

According to the Census Bureau 2016 population estimates, there's now a generation of Americans in which Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities account for the majority of members. The Recession Generation, a placeholder name for those born in the most recent and ongoing baby bust beginning in 2009, is 50.1 percent minority and 49.9 percent non-Hispanic White. Hispanics account for 26 percent of the Recession generation, Blacks for 18 percent, and Asians for 7 percent.

Overall, 38.7 percent of Americans are Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here are the percentages by generation...

Minority share of population by generation, 2016
Recession (0 to 6): 50.1%
iGeneration (7 to 21): 47.2%
Millennials (22 to 39): 44.0%
Gen Xers (40 to 51): 38.5%
Boomers: (52 to 70): 28.8%
Older (71 or older): 21.3%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2016 Population Estimates