
An Upshot/Siena survey of Pennsylvania shows the state remains out of reach for Donald Trump.
The Upshot’s presidential forecast, updated daily.

You can’t predict a recession based on the length of an expansion; it doesn’t work that way.
Women are often cut off or ignored in the public sphere, research finds. But there are some possible solutions.
Reports that many precincts gave Mitt Romney no votes in 2012 fueled conspiracy theories. But let’s take a closer look at those precincts.
Our best estimate of the early vote in North Carolina, updated daily.
The Upshot’s forecast for the presidential race, based on the latest national and state polls.
The Upshot’s Senate election forecast for 2016, updated daily with the latest polls.
Informed by research, Austin Frakt and Aaron Carroll explore and explain the changing landscape of health care.
After a recent climate accord on coolants, India is a poignant example of how climate change imposes a trade-off between the present and future.
What you need to know on who will be affected and what can be done about it.
A new poll, in line with other recent ones, shows the crucial battleground state is looking far less like a tossup than it did weeks ago.
The main reason women are so underrepresented at every level of politics is that they don’t run in the first place.
Hillary Clinton would probably need to win by double digits; every percentage point added to her victory margin would add around half a point to the average Democratic candidate.
Despite progress with Obamacare, things are likely to get worse before they get better.
High prices are a natural reflection of great demand and scant supply. In a free market, they are inevitable until demand subsides or supply expands.
A study of high-casualty attacks shows not only how porous firearms regulations are, but also how difficult tightening them in a meaningful way may be.
Researchers say it’s meant to play into stereotypes and the sense of discomfort with female politicians.
What would be signs of a Trump comeback? And can Republicans hold on to the Senate and the House?
The traditional red-state, blue-state map of the 2000-2012 era was driven in part by cultural issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. Not this year.
Presidential rivals typically run roughly the same number of commercials. Donald Trump’s lack of advertising seems to be costing him.
History, race, religion, identity, geography: The 2012 election county-level map has many stories to tell, including about the 2016 race.
A presidential candidate’s definition of masculinity prompts a second look at the damaging assumptions behind “boys will be boys.”
There’s nothing strange about polls showing Hillary Clinton up four or 11 points if it’s really a seven- or eight-point race.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston explains the seemingly odd concern of having too many people who are employed.
Consumers should welcome the lower premiums offered, but a recent study showed a disregard for customers.
Can the answer to what ails the global economy be found in the people in blue vests at your neighborhood Walmart?
There aren’t yet many signs that the bottom has fallen out for either Mr. Trump or the Republican Senate candidates in key states.
Times of diminished opportunities provide fertile ground for politicians around the world to grow followings by appealing to ethnic identity.