Well, now what?

SO, THAT HAPPENED: Day one with a House tax reform bill is now in the books — but no rest for the weary.

House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) is expected to release his chairman’s mark — the version of the tax bill he’ll bring to markup — as soon as today. That Ways and Means markup is scheduled for Monday, with House tax writers huddling on Sunday to prepare. And don’t forget the parallel tracks! Senate Republicans are expected to roll out their own tax bill next week.

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Hey, nice start: It’s not exactly been a unifying 10 months or so for Republicans. But the House GOP rank-and-file, with some exceptions, largely embraced the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts on Thursday, Pro Tax’s Brian Faler reports. Their Senate Republican colleagues called it a good start as well. “Guys from different caucuses, from different groups, were all speaking in favor of it,” said Rep. Mark Walker of North Carolina, chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee.

Troubles on the horizon? But 31 years after the last overhaul of the tax code, it couldn’t be that easy, right? Lots of business groups praised the House GOP bill on Thursday, but other outside advocates — the National Federation of Independent Business and Club for Growth, among them — were pretty critical.

One issue that could spark some rank-and-file objections before long: That special 25 percent rate for pass-through businesses. Advocates for pass-throughs said the so-called “guardrails” meant to prevent abuse, including the 70-30 test that would only allow 30 percent of an owner’s income to be eligible for the special rate, would essentially lead to a 35 percent effective rate — far above the 20 percent corporate rate proposed by the House GOP. “Our initial assessment is that many Main Street businesses will face higher taxes under this legislation than under current law,” the S Corporation Association said in a statement.

Want to know more about the GOP tax overhaul? POLITICO Pro’s legislative tracking tool, Legislative Compass, has a detailed breakdown of the bill, including bill text and legislative information. Learn more about Legislative Compass here.

Catching the Byrd-y: The House doesn’t have to worry about the Senate’s more unforgiving budget rules — which, among other things, ban increasing deficits outside the budget window. But House GOP tax writers said they were at least aware of how much more challenging the rules are across the Capitol when putting their plan together. “We did take it into consideration, but by no way was it determinative,” said Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.).

And yet, budget experts say the House bill would need a lot of work to survive the Senate’s Byrd Rule, noting that the House measure would lose almost $167 billion in the final year of the budget window. “Eyeballing the JCT estimate, it looks like all of the individual provisions, including the lower pass-through rate, would have to be sunset in order to avoid violating the Byrd rule,” said Ed Lorenzen of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Part of the issue there is the House GOP’s last-minute decision to go all out for a permanent 20 percent corporate rate — a choice that Pro Tax’s Aaron Lorenzo noted came with some sacrifices elsewhere. “Taking six years to fully repeal the estate tax is one of them, as is eliminating two new family-related tax credits after five years: a $300 personal credit and a separate $300 non-child dependent credit, both of which are nonrefundable. A five-year sunset provision on expanded cost recovery provisions also helped defray the cost of permanency at 20 percent.”

WELCOME TO FRIDAY’S MORNING TAX, where we do actually hope the weary get some rest this weekend.

It’s now been 149 years since John Willis Menard of Louisiana became the first African-American elected to Congress. Menard was never actually seated, because his opponent challenged the election.

Think there’s anything more to say about that tax bill? Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]. Twitter: @berniebecker3, @tobyeckert, @brian_faler, @colinwilhelm, @AaronELorenzo, @POLITICOProand @Morning_Tax.

AND WHAT OF THE MIDDLE CLASS? President Donald Trump has said that’s where his tax cuts will be focused, and House Republicans noted over and over Thursday that an average family of four would get more than $1,000 a year in annual tax relief.

But what if that tax cut was fleeting? That’s the argument from David Kamin, a New York University law professor and an economic aide to former President Barack Obama, who notes that the “family flexibility credit” expires after five years and that the House GOP proposes less generous cost-of-living adjustments within the tax system. The end result: A tax hike of as much as $500 for that family in 2027. Along those lines, The New York Times’ Jim Tankersley noted that around 13 million tax filers making less than $100,000 a year would face a tax hike under the GOP proposal.

One potential explanation, via Howard Gleckman of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center: Whether a taxpayer gets a tax increase would depend on “their specific circumstances: Where you live, the size and composition of your household, and how you earn your living will matter.”

THE DEM RESPONSE: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told The Wall Street Journal that Democrats would talk up the GOP proposal to end the deductions for state and local taxes, medical expenses and student loan interest as they seek to marshal the opposition. “The more the public sees this bill, the less they will like it. And I think that’s the reason our Republican colleagues are rushing this bill,” Schumer said.

And wouldn’t you know it: Some GOP aides are worried that targeting the medical expenses deduction could be handing a political winner to the Democrats, our Jennifer Haberkorn and Colin Wilhelm write. The deduction is used by comparatively few tax filers, but its impact can be significant for Americans with large medical bills, including nursing home expenses, insurance premiums paid with after-tax dollars or other medical tabs.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL SENATE ISSUE: House Republicans propose a decent boost to the child tax credit, up to $1,600 per child. But as our Nancy Cook reports, that’s short of where Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter, and a pair of prominent GOP senators — Mike Lee of Utah and Marco Rubio of Florida — wanted to get the incentive. Those three have all advocated at least doubling the child credit, which stands at $1,000.

DIFFERENT KIND OF BUBBLE: It’s not exactly simple, but the House GOP plan also includes provisions that essentially take back earlier tax benefits for people with annual taxable income north of $1 million. As The Agenda’s Danny Vinik notes, the so-called bubble tax on income between $1 million and $1.2 million a year would raise more than $50 billion over a decade and create a tax rate of almost 46 percent for that chunk of income.

CRITIQUING KAUTTER: The IRS finally has a new commissioner — O.K., an acting commissioner. That’s David Kautter, who is also the top tax man at Treasury. And some tax pros are getting mighty impatient about the lack of a permanent replacement. While crediting Kautter’s street cred, Steve Mankowski, president of the National Council of CPA Practitioners, told Tax Analysts he had misgivings about the appointment. “Our primary concern is that Mr. Kautter will continue to carry out his assistant secretary duties [at Treasury], including working on tax reform,” Mankowski said in an emailed excerpt of his comments. “NCCPAP feels that working at both jobs, each with its own unique characteristics, will not allow either job to be performed efficiently. In addition, working on tax reform is a job that is actually contrary to the job of commissioner, whose primary tasks are the administration and enforcement of the tax code.”

Mankowski also raised concerns about the authority Kautter would wield as a temp. “This is quite important if a commissioner is not confirmed before the start of the 2018 filing season. The ongoing possibility of personal and/or corporate tax reform before the end of the year may require delays in the start of the filing season. In addition, given the current cyber security environment that exists and taxpayer data being targeted along with the needs of the IRS to upgrade their computer systems, NCCPAP would hope to have someone with a strong IT background...”

INTERNATIONAL UPDATE

GREASED DEAL? The Trump administration plans to pull out of a global corruption-fighting initiative that requires oil, gas and mining companies to report payments to governments, including taxes. “The decision, announced in a letter Thursday to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, may undercut the effort that aims to give citizens and watchdogs in poor but mineral-rich nations details on how much their government leaders get in taxes, royalties and lease payments,” Bloomberg reports. “With that information, they can ensure the money is spent on roads and schools, not squirreled away in foreign bank accounts.” The move follows Congress’ repeal in February of an SEC rule that required similar disclosure by the industry, which lobbied to get rid of the rule. “That rule, mandated under the Dodd-Frank law, was seen as critical to compelling disclosure and satisfying the EITI requirements,” Bloomberg said.

STATE NEWS

IT’S FOR THE KIDS: Philadelphia Mayor James Kenney, as part of his strategy to persuade the state to give up its control of city schools, vowed to increase local taxes to make sure the schools meet modern standards. “Kenney, a Democrat in his first term as mayor, told the City Council he had lost confidence in the likelihood of increased state aid because of Pennsylvania’s own budget woes,” Reuters reports. Deputy Mayor Jim Engler told the news service that a property tax increase was on the table, “but said other options will be explored as well.”

QUICK LINKS

Republicans target provision allowing businesses to write off executive expenses.

The offshore cash piles that could be hit by deemed repatriation.

More on the proposed tax on “high returns.”

Who might pay more under the House GOP plan?

The House would scrap the Johnson Amendment.

Some questions about those pass-through rules.

DID YOU KNOW?

John Morgan founded the first medical school in the U.S. in 1765, at what’s now the University of Pennsylvania.