Debt is rising rapidly, while the links between the official banking system and shadowy institutions are growing deeper and harder to fathom. The People’s Bank of China can probably ride to the rescue in the event of a shock. But a painful credit crunch will be harder to avoid.
Breakingviews
GE joining M&A frenzy would be no shocker
The industrial giant is rebuffing reports it might buy $23 bln oil-services outfit Baker Hughes. But after selling some $200 bln of financial assets plus appliances and media, GE is in fighting shape for an offensive. If it can find Alstom-like targets, shareholders will gain.
Britain’s Brexit airbag can’t cushion everyone
Nissan’s UK plant will get state help if its competitiveness is harmed by Britain leaving the EU. Offsetting potential tariffs is unorthodox, but feasible and not especially expensive, even if rolled out to the whole industry. But picking winners also means picking losers.
Emperor Xi gets new clothes
China's Communist Party named President Xi Jinping as its "core" leader - a title previously granted to icons like Mao and Deng. But Xi needs more than titles to implement tough reforms; he needs provincial allies and a viable vision for economic policy. He may have neither.
Viewsroom: AT&T’s dog of a deal
CEO Randall Stephenson’s $85 bln offer for Time Warner lacks strategic rationale, has politicians of all stripes criticizing it and has destroyed shareholder value while denying owners a vote. All it lacks – so far – is an activist shareholder demanding it be scrapped.
AT&T deal may yet help more indie M&A shops
The year's biggest merger enlisted boutiques Perella Weinberg and Allen & Co alongside their bigger Wall Street rivals. If the $85 bln Time Warner acquisition emboldens other CEOs, the likes of Lazard and Moelis should benefit. They can use the help amid a patchy advice market.
Resilient UK growth adds to policymakers’ quandary
GDP rose by 0.5 pct in the third quarter as the economy barely broke its stride after Britain voted to leave the EU. The good news makes it harder for the government and Bank of England to justify a hefty stimulus. But if things do get worse their response may come too late.
Samsung heir’s new job comes with tough to-do list
Shareholders put Jay Y. Lee, son of the electronics group's patriarch, on the board. That makes his role official just as Samsung grapples with the Note 7 fallout and an activist investor's demands. Lee's accountability and signs of greater transparency come at the right time.
Comcast schools AT&T on media M&A
The cable giant now streams a third of its revenue from NBC Universal, a deal it concluded in early 2013. The regulatory and political climate was more accommodating and CEO Brian Roberts' strategy sound. AT&T's $85 bln bid for Time Warner, by contrast, is a dog's breakfast.
Oil prices are too gloomy on chance of OPEC deal
Crude prices have wilted after Iraq joined Nigeria, Iran and Libya in seeking exemptions from production cuts. But this need not be the death knell of a deal to reduce output. Even a small reduction to production would balance a market that is now only narrowly oversupplied.