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Matt O'Brien
@
ObsoleteDogma
New York
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Columnist for the Washington Post. Formerly the Atlantic & TNR.
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94.967
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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19 h |
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Unemployment is the lowest it's been in 50 years, but the labor market still isn't completely over the Great Recession.
The odds of ending up long-term unemployed, for example, are still higher than during the late 1990s or even the mid-2000s. washingtonpost.com/business/2018/… pic.twitter.com/PW1LUBFvvo
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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5 ott |
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Broader unemployment, or U6, actually ticked up a little from 7.4 to 7.5 percent. In the last year, it’s down 0.8 percentage points.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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5 ott |
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The labor force increased by 150k, which means that the unemployment rate fell entirely for the good reason that more people were finding work.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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5 ott |
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The household survey shows employment increasing by 420k. Using @JustinWolfers’s 80/20 rule, that means the underlying pace of job growth is probably around 190k … just like it has been for the better part of a decade now.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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5 ott |
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Jobs Report: +134k in September, +87k in revisions, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, and wages are up 2.8 percent the past year.
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Harold Pollack
@haroldpollack
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4 ott |
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So much that is great and terrible about America in one sentence. RIP. twitter.com/APWestRegion/s…
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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4 ott |
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Neo-Fisherism is the ultimate monetary-tightening Calvinball. It concedes that the effects of higher rates would be bad ... so it argues that lower rates actually cause them!
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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4 ott |
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You'd think this was obvious, but there's a whole school of economists who have spent the last few years arguing the opposite...
stlouisfed.org/publications/r…
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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4 ott |
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Surprise! Higher interest rates lead to lower inflation, and lower interest rates lead to higher inflation. larseosvensson.se/files/papers/s…
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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4 ott |
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Inequality is even worse than we know. It’s not just the Trumps—the super-rich really do evade a lot of taxes. washingtonpost.com/business/2018/…
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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2 ott |
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That’s a very fair economic point. But I think politically, it makes sense to point out that people are still poorer than they *thought* they were.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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2 ott |
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25 to 64. That's a fair critique of the study. It's probably why the bottom 30 percent have continued to slide down during the recovery. But even the middle and upper middle have barely experienced any recovery when it comes to wealth.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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2 ott |
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It does. It only looks at working-age households.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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2 ott |
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The bottom 90 percent are, adjusted for inflation, still poorer than they were in 2007. washingtonpost.com/business/2018/… pic.twitter.com/EYrEkzRMXl
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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26 set |
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Did he just ... admit it? twitter.com/evanmcmurry/st…
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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26 set |
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Blue-collar workers had a close call in 2016. It might be one of the reasons why Trump won. washingtonpost.com/business/2018/…
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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26 set |
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CNBC’s pre-Powell panel is playing Monetary Tightening Calvinball: we have to raise rates because of inflation, no, asset bubbles, no, tariffs
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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26 set |
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Either the natural rate of unemployment is a lot lower than the 4.5% the Fed thinks it is, or there’s no such thing as the natural rate of unemployment, or inflation is going to increase a bit the next few years.
Take your pick, Fed.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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26 set |
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There’s still a disconnect between the Fed’s unemployment & inflation projections. The Fed thinks inflation will stay flat at 2.1% the next few years despite unemployment being at 3.5% — a full point below its supposed “longer run” level — for that entire time.
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Matt O'Brien
@ObsoleteDogma
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26 set |
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As expected, the Fed just raised rates 0.25 percentage points to 2 to 2.25 percentage points.
The Fed expects the economy to grow a little more than it did in June, and unemployment to be a little higher. pic.twitter.com/EIFVdTpGIM
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