the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

SHORT TERM: market rallies to all-time high, DOW +113

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. The market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2265 close, bounced around a bit in the first half hour, then began to rally. By 3pm the SPX hit a new high at 2285, then closed at 2280.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.80%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Tomorrow: FHFA housing index at 9am.

Interesting day. The market opened a bit higher, bounced around, and then rallied to new all-time highs. As noted in the weekend update we were not sure if the B wave part of the pullback/correction had ended. Today’s rally added a new twist to that uncertainty. At first glance the rally looks good with XLB, XLE, XLF all up over 1%, and market breadth at new highs. But the advance from SPX 2234 still looks choppy. Until the market clears SPX 2305 we maintain that a choppy B wave is still unfolding short term. Short term support is at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum was extremely overbought at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

SHORT TERM: pullback resumes, DOW -27

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 4 points below Friday’s SPX 2271 close. In the opening minutes the market popped to SPX 2272, then resumed its decline. At 11:30 the SPX hit 2257, and then did a zigzag up to 2267, before closing at 2265.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude lost 40 cents, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops again to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market opened lower today, turned slightly positive at SPX 2272, then dropped to SPX 2257. The rest of the day it just drifted higher. The recent decline from SPX 2279, a week ago Friday, looks fairly symmetrical: 2258-2277-2257. Overall, however, the market activity remains choppy and looks corrective. The DOW has been weak, the NDX/NAZ stable, and the SPX appears caught in the middle. Looks like the Techs need to lead lower if a downtrend in underway. Short term support drops to SPX 2254 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to oversold at today’s low, then bounced to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW +95

Last night FED chair Yellen gave a speech on the economy and FED policy: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170119a.htm. Overnight Asian markets lost 0.5%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2273. The SPX had closed at 2264 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2277, and then started to pullback. At 1pm the SPX hit 2265, bounced to 2271 by 1:30, then hit 2265 again at 2:30. After that the market worked its way higher to close at SPX 2271.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported at 62.0% v 61.9%. And we have a new POTUS.

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since January 4th. But unlike that day the market did not hold its early gains, and pulled back minutes after the opening. The high of the day was the upper range of the OEW 2270 pivot (2277). A fairly quiet week as the entire range for the 4 days was SPX 2258-2277, with the entire range occurring between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. The DOW slightly outperformed the other major indices today, but continues to lag. Another quiet week in the market, just like last week. Short term support rises to the 2070 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought again early, then declined to neutral. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

SHORT TERM: market declines after higher open, DOW -72

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher, but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 234K v 247K, housing starts were reported higher: 1226K v 1090K, building permits was reported higher: 1210K v 1201K, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 23.6 v 21.5. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2272 close and immediately began to pullback. By 11am the SPX hit 2265, bounced to 2270 by 11:30, then dropped even lower. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 2258, then bounced to close at 2264.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds dropped 21 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops back to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance again at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Today the Q4 GDP estimate was reported unchanged at 2.8%. Tonight there is a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8pm, and tomorrow is options expiration. Also on Friday, Donald J. Trump is sworn in as the new POTUS.

The market opened slightly higher today and then declined to within 4 points of last week’s SPX 2254 low. While the SPX/NDX/NAZ have remained in a tight range, or made new uptrend highs, today the DOW traded at its lowest level since the first week of December. The uptrend leader in November/December continues to lag. The SPX, after making a new all-time high at 2282 in the first week of January has displayed nothing but choppy sideways activity since. The recent SPX action looks similar to the choppy action before the declines in September/October. Short term support is at SPX 2254 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from overbought early to quite oversold at the low. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

SHORT TERM: quiet sideways day, DOW -22

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were flat overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: 0.3% v 0.2%, and at 9:15 industrial production was reported higher: 0.8% v -0.4%. The market opened 1 point above yesterday’s SPX 2268 close, then immediately dropped to yesterday’s 2263 low in the opening minutes. After that it started to drift higher. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 67 v 70. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2270, and started to drift lower. At 2pm the FED’s: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm. At 3pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170118a.htm. After hitting SPX 2266 by 1pm the market rallied to 2272 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 26 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2231 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, and the Philly FED all at 8:30. Then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8pm.

The market opened flat today, dropped to yesterday’s SPX 2263 low, then closed at yesterday’s 2272 high. Same range, 2263-2272, two days in a row. During today’s decline, however, the DOW, which was the leader during the entire uptrend, made a lower low than yesterday, a lower low than last week, and came within 20 points of reaching the end of December low (SPX 2234 equivalent). Tech which was the laggard during the uptrend is again close to making new highs. The tug of war continues in the choppy environment. Short term support rises to the 2270 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum reached overbought at today’s close. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

SHORT TERM: lower open on pullback Tuesday, DOW -59

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower yesterday, and overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 6.5 v 9.0. The market opened 7 points below Friday’s SPX 2275 close, ticked down to 2265 by 10am, then tried to rally. After hitting SPX 2272 by 10:30 the market went into a 4 point trading range, and hit 2272 again by 1:30. After that it headed even lower. Around 3pm the SPX hit 2263, then bounced to close at 2268.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops again to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30, industrial production (est. 0.7%) at 9:15, the NAHB at 10am, the FED’s beige book at 2pm, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 3pm. Full day!

The market opened lower to start the holiday shortened options expiration week. After hitting SPX 2265, it bounced to 2272, then hit 2263 just before a 2269 close. Last week’s entire trading range, SPX 2254-2279, which occurred within 24 hours, has already been retraced 61.8% at today’s low. Market movement continues to look like choppy corrective activity. Short term support drops back to SPX 2254 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a slight positive divergence. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp