Some of the US’s top economists are the most worried they’ve been in years about the country’s economy. According to WSJ’s monthly survey of economists, about 85% of those surveyed said the risks for the #USeconomy were tilting to the downside - the most since at least the start of 2015. The recent spate of trade fears has been blamed for both the sell-off in US stock markets and businesses’ slowing of capital expenditures.

Economists at JPMorgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs agreed that US #GDPgrowth would slow in H2 of 2019, and they say the trade war could make such an economic slowdown even worse. While none of the Wall Street banks predicted a #recession, they also suggested the economic risks were firmly titled toward the downside.


#WorldEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicPolicy #AmericanEconomy #EconomicGrowth #EconomicSlowdown #EconomicRisk #EconomicRecession #UnitedStates
#Trump’s #tradewar with #China is the biggest threat to the US economy in 2019, and it’s making economists the most worried they’ve been in years
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs-biggest-2019-us-economic-threat-2018-12/

The benefits of this ‘strong economy’ have not reached all Americans

4 in 10 adults still say they don’t have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency expense, according to the latest #FederalReserve report on the economic well-being of #Americans. While that is an improvement over 2013, when half of Americans said they could not cover a $400 expense, it remains elevated at a time when #unemployment is so low and wages are rising.

A substantial number of Americans - 45% - still rate the current #economy as 'only fair' or 'poor,' according to a Gallup poll in November. Though that is better than in recent years, it is still far higher than November 2000, when only 29% of Americans gave the economy a poor grade. About 4.8 million Americans who want full-time employment are stuck in part-time jobs, according to the Labor Department. That is still above the pre-recession level and, even more alarming, has jumped by 423,000 since August.


#WorldEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicPolicy #AmericanEconomy #EconomicGrowth #EconomicSlowdown #EconomicRisk #EconomicRecession #UnitedStates
The benefits of this ‘strong economy’ have not reached all Americans
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/13/benefits-this-strong-economy-have-not-reached-all-americans/

#America's finance chiefs fear the economic expansion is nearly over. Almost half (48.6%) of #US #CFO believe the #UnitedStates will be in recession by the end of next year, according to the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey. And 82% of CFOs surveyed by Duke believe that a #recession will begin by the end of 2020.

The CFO survey's pessimism about 2019 will raise eyebrows because mainstream economists are still projecting steady, albeit slower, growth next year. Wall Street has begun to sniff out an #economicslowdown, evidenced by the wave of selling and extreme volatility infecting the stock market. The S&P 500, down 8%, is on track for its worst quarter since 2011. Banks, which are especially exposed to economic trouble, have plummeted. The outlook for 2020 looks more precarious. Just 18% of the CFOs polled by Duke believe the United States will avoid a recession prior to the end of 2020.


#WorldEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicPolicy #AmericanEconomy #EconomicGrowth #EconomicRecession #EconomicRisk #Economy
Nearly half of US CFOs fear a 2019 recession
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/12/economy/recession-economy-cfos-duke/index.html

Nearly half of corporate CFOs are expecting a US recession by the end of 2019
https://www.consortiumconsultancy.com/2018/12/13/nearly-half-of-corporate-cfos-are-expecting-a-us-recession-by-the-end-of-2019/ #ConsortiumConsultancy #Economic #Trade #Economicslowdown #BusinessCorporates #CFO

#China’s #economicslowdown has pummeled global suppliers of raw materials and industrial equipment, but business has remained surprisingly brisk for companies that cater to the country’s growing upper-middle class.

Indeed, Chinese consumers appear to be weathering the slowdown better than the economy’s traditional growth engines like manufacturing and construction, which are sputtering. At least for now, they have redrawn the line between winners and losers. Among the winners are sportswear maker Nike Inc., coffee-store chain Starbucks Corp., clothing retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB and gadget giant Apple Inc.

#EconomicGrowth   #EconomicReform   #EconomicRecovery     #Economy   #WorldEconomy  
As China’s Economy Slows, Consumers Pick Up Some of the Slack
http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-chinas-economy-slows-consumers-pick-up-some-of-the-slack-1446581526

Nowhere in the world is more at risk from the combination of #China   #economicslowdown, low #commodityprices and imminent rises in #US #interestrates, than Africa. There is now a serious question over whether many African economies can achieve rapid growth in the years ahead or whether they are due to sink back into mediocre performance, thereby condemning their people to a continued low standard of living.

The worst hit are #Nigeria, #Zambia and #Angola. The major economy that is doing best is #Kenya. Meanwhile, SSA’s most developed economy, and the destination for much overseas investment, namely #SouthAfrica seems to be mired in a phase of decidedly slow growth. This year it might manage 1.5%. But its medium-term prospects are pretty poor; its potential growth rate might only be 2%. When you adjust for population growth, its potential growth of per capita GDP may only be 1.2% per annum, which is pretty paltry compared to China – even after the recent slowdown.

#Economy   #EmergingEconomies   #EmergingMarkets   #DevelopingCountries   #CommodityExporters  
#Africa is in grave danger from the #globaleconomicslowdown
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11953924/Africa-is-in-grave-danger-from-the-global-economic-slowdown.html

For more than a decade, this mineral-rich nation in #SouthernAfrica offered prime evidence of the continent’s rise, its soaring #economy propelled by #China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for its copper. Deepening ties brought new roads, hospitals, stadiums, all built by the Chinese, most completed ahead of schedule. But China’s economic slowdown has caused #Zambia’s economy to tumble. Thousands of jobs have been lost, and the outlook is now grim. China’s demand for raw materials has cooled, as it tries to shift its economy away from construction, investment and exports to one driven by consumption and services. That transformation is already jolting countries in #Africa, from those with diversified economies, like South Africa, to those dependent on a single export, like Zambia or Angola, even as the Chinese government and businesses express long-term commitment to the continent.

In Zambia, as well as in many other African nations, there are few signs that governments used the profits from the #commodities boom to diversify their economies and to make them less dependent on foreign investors and less subject to cycles of boom and bust. Copper, which makes up more than 70% of Zambia’s exports, is now worth less than half of its peak price just a few years ago.

#EmergingMarkets   #EconomicSlowdown   #EconomicGrowth   #EconomicOutlook  
China’s Slowdown Tarnishes Economic Boom in Copper-Rich Zambia
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/03/world/africa/zambia-china-economic-slowdown.html

Financial markets in recent months have been rife with turmoil, tied to fluctuating commodity prices, #China's economic slowdown and sluggish growth in key markets. Other uncertainties, such as the risk of the so-called #Brexit, in which #Britain has threatened to leave the European Union, and geopolitical tensions, have intensified fears of volatility and economic stagnation.

The International Monetary and Financial committee urged #advancedeconomies, where recoveries have been limited due to 'a combination of weak demand, low productivity growth, and remaining crisis legacies,' to have supportive policies, beyond monetary policy, to 'achieve balanced and #sustainablegrowth.' The #IMF described its own role in helping countries implement those policies as multi-faceted, from offering advice and analysis of countries' reforms and policies to helping countries weather volatile and uncertain periods, with financial assistance if necessary.

#WorldEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicGrowth #EconomicRisk #EconomicRecovery #EconomicPolicy #EconomicSlowdown #EconomicStimulus 
To Spur #GlobalEconomy, International Monetary Fund Leaders Urge ‘Growth-Friendly’ Policies During Tight Times
http://www.ibtimes.com/spur-global-economy-international-monetary-fund-leaders-urge-growth-friendly-policies-2354991

#China isn’t facing a 'cataclysmic' economic slowdown and last week’s market turmoil was more about badly designed stock market circuit breakers, according to Nobel-prize-winning economist #JosephStiglitz. The latter said the government’s new focus on supply-side economic reforms could precipitate a deeper downturn if not accompanied by measures to boost demand. Policy makers plan supply-side reforms to deal with issues including overcapacity and excess labor in state-owned industries. 

The tumultuous start to 2016 supports Stiglitz's belief there’s no reason to expect the #globaleconomy will be any stronger this year than in 2015. Even before the market turmoil erupted last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve was set to pause on further interest rates rises anyway because the ' #Americaneconomy is not back to health.'

#ChineseEconomy   #GlobalEconomy   #Economy   #EconomicReform   #EconomicOutlook  
China Not Facing 'Cataclysmic' #EconomicSlowDown, Says Stiglitz
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/china-not-facing-cataclysmic-economic-slow-down-says-stiglitz