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In his State of the Union address, President Donald #Trump made a big claim about recent #economicgrowth, extolling the U.S. for having 'far and away the hottest #economy anywhere in the world.' True, #America's economy is strong. But not only is it not the world's hottest - China, India and a host of other developing nations are growing faster - it's already significantly cooler than it was just six months ago.

The unemployment rate has risen from its 50-year trough of 3.7% a few months ago to 4% in January. The share of businesses saying they couldn't find anyone to hire has stopped rising, and wages last month grew more slowly than expected. Across the S&P 500, analysts are forecasting earnings per share to drop 1.8 % in Q1. The diminishing growth in some countries abroad is reverberating in U.S. factories.


#GlobalEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicData #AmericanEconomy #EconomicPolicy #EconomicSlowdown #USEconomy #UnitedStates
Trump says U.S. has the world's "hottest" economy -- he's way off
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-economy-is-less-hot-than-president-trump-claimed-in-his-state-of-the-union-address/
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Gold continues to be steady ahead of US President Trump’s speech later in the day and amid lackluster economic reports.

#Commodities #Commodity #dollar #donaldtrump #economicdata #Fedofficials #FinanceBrokerage #Gold #JobsData #spotgold #trump #USPresident
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With the #LunarNewYear holidays in #China starting Monday (Feb 4), a busy period for retailers as Chinese tourists to #Japan increase around this time of year, concern is spreading among retail businesses over a lowering of Chinese consumers’ desire to spend money this year due to the slowdown of Chinese #economicgrowth and the recent strengthening of the yen.

4 major department stores released their sales of tax-free goods in January and all of them registered YoY declines, with Takashimaya Co. decreasing 15% from a year earlier, Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. declining 6.6%, Sogo and Seibu Co. dropping about 10% and Daimaru Matsuzakaya Department Stores Co. falling about 1%. Compared with exchange rates during the 2018 #LunarNewYear holidays in China, the yen has gained 3.5% against the Chinese yuan in the most recent rates, which has put a crimp in Chinese tourists’ spending.


#GlobalEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicData #EconomicPolicy #EconomicGrowth #ChineseNewYear #TradeWar #GlobalTradeWar #Economy #EconomicSlowdown #ChineseEconomy #YearofthePig #PigYear #LNY #CNY #LNY2019 #CNY2019
Japanese retailers worry Chinese tourists will spend less this Lunar New Year
https://www.thejakartapost.com/travel/2019/02/03/japanese-retailers-worry-chinese-tourists-will-spend-less-this-lunar-new-year.html
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The #YearofthePig officially starts on Tuesday (Feb 5). Tens of millions of people will travel to see relatives, fly abroad to take vacations - and open their wallets to buy gifts. In 2018, Chinese spent 926bn yuan ($137bn) at restaurants and stores ringing in the Year of the Dog. This year’s celebration is the first to take place during a trade war with the #UnitedStates, and the data don’t bode well. The trade fight has dragged down #China’s stock and property markets, and #GDP in Q4 of 2018 rose at the slowest pace since 2008.

Chinese consumers account for a third of global duty-free spending, and the economic slowdown has weighed on travel companies. The #LunarNewYear could be key to turning things around. More than 400 million Chinese tourists are likely to travel domestically during the holiday, about 4% more than last year, according to Citigroup. 7 million Chinese will head to overseas destinations, an 8% rise from last year. With the yuan down over the past year, tourists may be heading to more affordable destinations in Asia.


#GlobalEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicData #EconomicPolicy #EconomicGrowth #ChineseNewYear #TradeWar #GlobalTradeWar #Economy #EconomicSlowdown #LNY #CNY #LNY2019 #CNY2019 #PigYear
New Year break a big test for #Chineseeconomy
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1622418/new-year-break-a-big-test-for-chinese-economy
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Job growth in January was strikingly robust, the government reported Friday (Feb 1), suggesting the 35-day government shutdown did little to slow #economicgrowth and giving an unexpected lift to a besieged President Donald #Trump. The #economy added 304,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. #Unemployment rose slightly to 4%, up from 3.9% in December. The jobs report allows Trump to claim victory in the economy despite evidence of growing dysfunction in Washington.

The uptick in hiring was paired with an unusually large revision to the December numbers, from 312,000 to 222,000. The January increase may also be inflated by furloughed government contractors forced into part-time work during the shutdown - the number of so-called involuntary, part-time workers grew by half a million.


#GlobalEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicData #EconomicPolicy #AmericanEconomy #UnitedStates #Economy
U.S. economy created 304,000 jobs in January
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/01/january-jobs-report-us-economy-labor-numbers-1141618

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Employers added 304,000 new #jobs to the #USeconomy in January - once again surpassing economic forecasts, according to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the #unemploymentrate ticked up again, moving from 3.9% to 4%, in part because of the partial #governmentshutdown. About 175,000 unemployed workers said they were temporarily laid off. The unemployment rate has been creeping up since November, when it was 3.7%.

However, the latest jobs report once again shows little #wage growth, which remains the biggest weakness in the American economy. The average US worker hasn’t seen their paycheck get much bigger since the Great Recession, which ended around 2009. In January, private sector workers (excluding farmworkers) got an average 3-cent hourly raise, adding up to an average hourly pay of $27.56. In the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have only increased 85 cents, or 3.2%, and that doesn’t even take inflation into account.


#GlobalEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicData #EconomicPolicy #EconomicGrowth #AmericanEconomy #UnitedStates #Economy
Job growth in January was phenomenal. Wage growth was pathetic.
https://www.vox.com/2019/2/1/18206649/january-2019-jobs-report-unemployment
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#China’s economy expanded by 6.7% in Q3 of 2016, as it did in the previous 2 quarters. As China is set to release Q4 GDP figures on Jan. 20, China’s economic growth looks right on track to hit the government’s target growth rate of no less than 6.5% for the full year. But China’s northeastern #Liaoning province, which relies on steel production as its growth engine, had inflated its #GDP figures from 2011 to 2014, according to province governor Chen Qiufa on Jan. 17 in his annual work report. It is the first time the Chinese government has publicly admitted to faking official statistics at any level. Fiscal revenues were inflated by at least 20% during the period, and some other economic data were also made up.


#WorldEconomy #ChineseEconomy #Economy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicGrowth #EconomicRisk #EconomicData
The Chinese government finally admitted that its economic data was made up
https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that-it-inflated-gdp-figures-from-2011-to-2014/
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#China’s National Bureau of Statistics released China’s 2016 headline growth figure on Friday (Jan 20). #GDP expanded 6.7%, making China one of the fastest-growing major economies last year.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics does not have a similar urge to inflate the figures. In fact, the agency is trying to cut its reliance on numbers reported by local government officials. Instead, it prefers to collect data directly. For instance, it has developed a system connected directly to 700,000 large enterprises to measure industrial activity and it has also given devices to officials across the country gathering information on prices for inflation data. All are intended to reduce the distortion from local government officials.


#WorldEconomy #ChineseEconomy #Economy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicGrowth #EconomicRisk #EconomicData
Can you still trust China’s economic data after province admits cooking books?
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2063906/can-you-still-trust-chinas-economic-data-after-province-admits
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A mixed bag of Chinese #economicdata this week has unnerved global markets and clouded the outlook for #China’s economic growth, days before the release of the country’s quarterly #GDP figures. Though China’s economy recorded its slowest growth in 25 years in 2015, it has shown signs of stabilizing in recent months, sustained by billions of dollars of government infrastructure projects and a spreading credit-fuelled housing boom. China is targeting GDP growth of 6.5 to 7% this year, after 6.9% last year.

#WorldEconomy #EconomicOutlook #EconomicGrowth #Economy
Conflicting data blur China’s economic outlook
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/conflicting-data-blur-chinas-economic-outlook/article32360501/
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One year ago, the #worldeconomy seemed hopelessly trapped in a cycle of low growth and inflation. Markets recoiled at the mere possibility that the Fed would raise interest rates. Populist political insurgencies seemed to threaten yet more financial market chaos. Now, interest rates and inflation forecasts have risen substantially from last winter’s lows; financial markets are shrugging off - or even rallying at the possibility of - imminent Fed rate increases; and it is all taking place during Donald J. Trump’s presidency.

Much of the buoyant optimism on Wall Street is driven by investors’ expectations of corporate tax cuts and deregulation under the #Trump administration. But there is also some real improvement in the economic data underneath the shifts, reflecting economic forces that have been underway for years. And this resetting of expectations is evident in market data beyond the always erratic stock market.A new survey of manufacturing supply managers showed the factory sector is expanding at a breakneck pace. Last August, that same index from the Institute for Supply Management was contracting. Those numbers followed positive readings on retail sales, industrial production and the job market.


#USEconomy #UnitedStates #EconomicOutlook #Economy #EconomicData #EconomicGrowth
What Booming Markets Are Telling Us About the #GlobalEconomy
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/upshot/what-booming-markets-are-telling-us-about-the-global-economy.html
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