Debates coming up this next week on Gun-free zones at Universities in Austin and San Antonio
Labels: debate

Welcome! Follow me on twitter at @johnrlottjr . Please e-mail questions to [email protected].
Labels: debate
State authorities have conceded that the bullet ID program, enacted in 2000, cost $5 million, was plagued by technical problems and did not solve a single crime. Now, the 300,000 shell casings, one from every handgun sold in the state since the law took effect, will now be sold for scrap metal. . . .
“It was clear 10 years ago that this program was not going to work,” John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center told FoxNews.com. "Millions were spent on funding this program, money that could have been better used for actual police and law-enforcement resources.”
Lott even predicted that the program would fail over a decade ago in an op-ed piece in the National Review in February 2005. Even though the state spent approximately $60 per gun to catalog each firearm's unique ballistic signature, critics, including Lott, said legally purchased guns were typically not the ones wielded by criminals. They also said the program suffered from widespread erroneous entry of data and the inadequate software often resulted in hundreds of "matches" being found for each casing tested. . . .
Labels: Guns in Media


Labels: ConcealedCarry
Labels: Gun Control Poll
Labels: op-ed
It's easy to forget that in 1991 the U.S. murder rate was well over twice what it is today. In a speech last week at Atlanta's Clark University, Hillary Clinton showed she doesn't understand her call for an "end the era of mass incarceration" will endanger lives. She now proposes to end mass incarceration by "keep(ing) more nonviolent drug offenders out of prison."
There are good reasons to decriminalize drug possession, though Clinton mentioned none. Furthermore, she is wrong in believing that decriminalization would end mass incarceration.
In 2012, less than 7% of inmates at state and federal prisons were in for possessing illegal drugs. And it was rarely just for possession of marijuana. There are no national data, but data from Arizona indicate as few as 0.3% were incarcerated for marijuana possession, and those cases involve people arrested multiple times.
In California, even adding together trafficking or possession offenses, only 1% of state prisoners are incarcerated for marijuana offenses. . . .
Labels: op-ed
Last week, a New York Times editorial shockingly claimed that American concealed handgun permit holders have been responsible for 763 non-self-defense deaths since 2007. The Times editorial cites these numbers as proof of the “myth of the vigilant citizen” and “foolhardy notion of quick-draw resistance.”
But the numbers they rely on from the Violence Policy Center are fatally flawed, quadruple counting legitimate self-defense cases as criminal murders and blaming suicides on permits when the suicides don’t even involve guns. More disturbing, the Times has been called on using these same numbers before, but they keep on using the numbers and never acknowledge any of the problems.
Take Michigan, which is supposedly by far the worst with over a third of all claimed deaths — 278 of the 763. Of these 278 deaths in Michigan, 215 were suicides. But Michigan State Police reports don’t collect information on whether suicides were committed with their permitted concealed handgun — just that permit holders committed suicide. The police simply match their records on permit holders to the Michigan Department of Community Health’s records on suicides.
There is a simple response to the New York Times claim that permits cause suicides: Michigan permit holders committed suicide at less than 40% the rate of the general adult Michigan population. . . .
Labels: op-ed
. . . My No. 1 priority is to know with assurance that my son will be kept safe in every way and that, if attacked, he will have the ability and freedom to defend himself. Yes, by all means, we need to discuss the current lack of adequate treatments for mental health. There are obviously major issues that need to be addressed in that area of health care. But until that complicated subject is honestly addressed and corrected, there is one sure-fire, no-fail way to keep our kids safe: No Gun-Free Zones. . . .
Looking at every mass shooting on record, since 2009, one thing is clear: Gun-free zones don’t protect, they endanger. The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) released a report in 2014 showing that 92 percent of mass public shootings between January 2009 and July 2014 took place in gun-free zones. Have we become so politically correct that we are willing to ignore the facts to the detriment of our children’s safety? . . .
Labels: GunFreeZone

Labels: Radio
Labels: MediaAppearance
Labels: Buckley v Vidal debates

Labels: Radio
-- "Lott, for his part, still stands by his idea, although he has nuanced it a bit. He's recently argued that studies critical of right-to-carry laws have failed to properly account for state-level differences in how difficult it is to acquire a handgun permit."The paper that Lott wrote looked at 4 studies. In direct contrast to Ingraham's claim about me responding to studies "critical of right-to carry laws": two of those papers that Lott discussed found a benefit from right-to-carry laws, one claimed no effect, and one claimed increased crime. The point of Lott's was that those papers (even the two that found a benefit) were biased towards not finding a benefit. If Ingraham had looked at the new paper closely or my research from 2000 on, he would also know that the term "recently" is incorrect. Lott has been trying to account for the change in permits since the second edition of "More Guns, Less Crime" in 2000.
-- "But as Evan DeFilippis and Devin Hughes recently point out at The Trace, even more recent research from Texas A&M looked at the number of permits issued, not just the passage of various laws. Philips found 'no significant effect of concealed handgun license increases on changes in crime rates... this research suggests that the rate at which CHLs are issued and crime rates are independent of one another—crime does not drive CHLs; CHLs do not drive crime.'"In a previous post on this website we mentioned numerous problems with the Texas A&M study, we mentioned several problems. One included (emphasis added):
No explanation is offered for why these authors exclude other states or years? County level permit data are easily available for Illinois and Wisconsin because no permits were issued over this entire period of time. Oregon, Tennessee, North Carolina, and other states have county level data over this period of time. This is important because the test that they are preforming compares these states relative to one another during the period that they all have right-to-carry concealed handgun laws. When authors throw out data there had better be a good explanation for why they are doing it, but no explanation is offered here.On other studies:
-- "Changes in gun ownership are significantly positively related to changes in the homicide rate" (Ludwig, 2002)If Ingraham had read the paper he cites here, he would have not only noticed that the paper was done by Mark Duggan, but, more importantly, Ingraham doesn't mention the part of the paper that deals with concealed handgun laws (the purpose of his piece). In Table 12 of Duggan's paper, out of the 6 results that are reported on murder rates, 5 out of 6 estimates show a drop in murder rates after adoption of the law (three of these are statistically significant). The sixth estimate was essentially zero. None of the estimates show a significant bad effect.
-- "Right-to-carry laws are associated with substantially higher rates" of aggravated assault, robbery, rape and murder. (Aneja et al 2014)This website has long had a detailed discussion of the problems with this unpublished paper. Research shown here as also provided a detailed discussion. More discussion will be added later. Ingraham has this tweet up pushing his claims. Presumably he is trying to discredit the research by linking it up to the NRA doing "an amazing job selling" it rather than thinking that the academic debate has has some influence here. Unfortunately, Ingraham ignores most of the academic research, and, as noted above, he doesn't respond the critiques that have made of the research he cites.

Labels: GunControl, mediabias

Beck: "The best source on gun stats and everything, if you are trying to make an argument with someone, the best place to go is start with John."Glenn Beck's show is heard by over 7 million people.
Labels: Radio
Labels: Bloomberg, GunControl
Tesla (TSLA)'s Model S earned a below-average reliability score in a recent Consumer Reports survey of owners. . . . .
The bottom line is that the Model S is fun to drive, with great handling and amazing acceleration, but it also suffers from more than its share of annoying technical glitches, according to the magazine.
About 1,400 Tesla owners surveyed complained of problems with the car's charging equipment, center console area and things like door and windows. They also had issues with the car's electric drive systems and they complained about rattles, squeaks and leaks in the sunroof.
Tesla shares slid 10% shortly after Consumer Reports released the survey. . . .
Labels: electric cars
Gun ownership is greatest among rural whites, a group whose voting power is diminishing. The conclusion, according to Adam Winkler in the Washington Post, is that the NRA will inevitably decline in power.
The theory isn't new. Tom Smith, director of the General Social Survey, told me in 1997 that the large drop in gun ownership shown by his poll would "make it easier for politicians to do the right thing on guns."
According to Smith's survey, the percentage of homes with a gun has fallen fairly continuously since the 1970s — from approximately 50% to 32% earlier this year.
On the other hand, surveys by Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post show that gun ownership rates have been flat since the 1970s. The number is uncertain for a number of reasons, including people's willingness to tell the truth to pollsters about whether they own guns.
The "hard" data that we do know is that concealed handgun permits and gun sales have soared. Concealed handgun permits tripled from 2007 to 2015. The National Instant Criminal Background Check System shows that the number of gun purchases doubled from 2006 to 2014.
But while significant demographic changes have been occurring for decades, there hasn't been any steady increase in support for gun control. Indeed, the opposite is actually true.The rest of the piece is available here.
According to Gallup, 78% of voters supported stricter gun control in 1990. By last fall, that number had fallen to 47%. Look at PEW polls and you'll see that support for stricter gun control has fallen dramatically since the late 1990s. CNN's polls show a similar pattern since 1993. . . . .
Labels: op-ed
A state judge has ruled that a Facebook post by Liberty Common School amounts to an illegal campaign contribution to a Thompson School District board candidate.
In August, the Fort Collins charter school shared with its Facebook followers a newspaper article about a parent of a student running for a board seat in the neighboring school district. Liberty Common’s principal, former Colorado Congressman Bob Schaffer, then shared the post and called candidate Tomi Grundvig an “excellent education leader” who would provide “sensible stewardship” of Thompson.
Liberty Common has 566 followers to its Facebook page. Schaffer, who lost a 2004 bid for U.S. Senate, has more than 3,900 “friends” on his personal page. . . .
Labels: CampaignFinanceRegulation
-- "Lott, for his part, still stands by his idea, although he has nuanced it a bit. He's recently argued that studies critical of right-to-carry laws have failed to properly account for state-level differences in how difficult it is to acquire a handgun permit."
-- "But as Evan DeFilippis and Devin Hughes recently point out at The Trace, even more recent research from Texas A&M looked at the number of permits issued, not just the passage of various laws. Philips found 'no significant effect of concealed handgun license increases on changes in crime rates... this research suggests that the rate at which CHLs are issued and crime rates are independent of one another—crime does not drive CHLs; CHLs do not drive crime.'"
No explanation is offered for why these authors exclude other states or years? County level permit data is easily available for Illinois and Wisconsin are easily available because no permits were issued over this entire period of time. Oregon, Tennessee, North Carolina, and other states have county level data over this period of time. This is important because the test that they are preforming compares these states relative to one another during the period that they all have right-to-carry concealed handgun laws. When authors throw out data there had better be a good explanation for why they are doing it, but no explanation is offered here.On other studies:
-- "Changes in gun ownership are significantly positively related to changes in the homicide rate" (Ludwig, 2002)
-- "Right-to-carry laws are associated with substantially higher rates" of aggravated assault, robbery, rape and murder. (Aneja et al 2014)
Democrats keeping telling people that they don’t want to confiscate their guns, but at the same time they are praising the gun control laws in countries that have confiscated people’s guns. But Hillary Clinton’s claims that confiscation made them safer are completely wrong.
Speaking at Keene State College in New Hampshire, Clinton was asked if the U.S. should try to take away everyone’s handguns, as Australia once did. Clinton responded by praising Australia’s gun buyback in 1996 and 1997, when the government outlawed guns and then used registration lists to identify who owned these newly prohibited weapons. Clinton also praised Canada and the UK, which used similar registration laws to confiscate guns. President Obama has been praising those laws.
On Friday, Clinton made fun of those worried about confiscation. She said people get scared into thinking that “a black helicopter is going to land in the front yard and somebody is going to take your guns.”
But why should gun owners trust her when she praises other country’s confiscation efforts? She thinks that Canada, Australia, and the UK are safer because of their strict gun laws, even when the evidence shows the opposite. . . .
If young people don't have a birth certificate with them, possibly they should ask their parents as they would have needed a birth certificate for many areas of life. From the New York Times:
- Registering for School . . .
- Obtaining a Driver’s License . . .
- Marriage . . .
- Signing Up for Sports – Especially in youth sports, there is often an age requirement. This protects children from accidental injury by older kids. Since it is required, you may have to provide a proof of age, usually in the form of a certified birth certificate.
- Travel – A birth certificate is one of the requirements for obtaining a passport, of course. However, it is often used in other circumstances too. Many cruise lines require that passengers provide a birth certificate upon boarding, especially when a passport may not be required, so they can prove identity.
- Social Security Card . . .
- General Identification . . . .
Amelia Flores, a high school senior with plans to become an electrical engineer, eagerly filled out a form to register to vote for the first time at the Kansas State Fair last month. But she left the fair without registering, stymied by a state law championed by Republicans who dominate elected offices in Kansas that requires her to provide proof of citizenship.
“I think it’s ridiculous and restrictive,” said Ms. Flores, who later received a notice in the mail informing her that she must produce a birth certificate or other proof of citizenship to complete the registration. “A lot of people are working multiple jobs, so they don’t have time to get this stuff done. Some of them don’t have access to their birth certificate.”
Ms. Flores, who said she was born in Washington State, unwittingly joined a list of more than 36,000 people in Kansas who have tried to register to vote since the law went into effect in 2013, but then did not complete their registration. This month, under a rule adopted by the Kansas secretary of state’s office, county election officials throughout the state began to cull names from the voters list, removing people who had been on it at least 90 days. Those removed from the list must start the registration process over to vote. . . . .
An analysis by The New York Times of the list of voters showed . . . . Fifty-seven percent of the people on the list did not declare a party; 23 percent were Democrats, and 18 percent were Republicans. The vast majority — 90 percent — had never voted. . . .
Labels: VoteFraud
Christopher Sanna had parked at the Old Cathedral parking lot and was waking to his car. According to police, two men in a dark-colored sedan drove up to them. The driver got out with a gun and demanded their property. The woman gave the gunman her purse, and the couple turned to run away. The gunman fired several shots in their direction, hitting Sanna in the back.Thanks to Tony Troglio for the link.
"They turned to run away, but they didn't make it very far," Candis Sanna said. "As soon as they gave them the stuff, they were going to try to run away but he shot them. They were within arm's reach." . . .
Labels: AdvicetoVictims