The National Bureau of Economic Research

Increase in Mortgage Debt of Households
Has Created New Realities in the Business Cycle

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts - Interview

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis destroyed any illusion that central banks and finance ministries could stabilize economies and dampen volatility, economists have been exploring what happened. Research presented at the NBER's 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics found household mortgage debt had increased dramatically, accompanied by new financial structures and dynamics which economic models had failed to incorporate. Videos of this presentation and additional conference presentations and interviews will be posted here over the next two weeks.

2016 NBER Macroeconomics Conference Program with downloadable papers, videos of presentations and interviews with researchers

New NBER Research

23 May 2016

Family Ruptures, Stress,
and the Mental Health of the Next Generation

Prenatal exposure to the death of a maternal relative increases take-up of ADHD medications during childhood and anti-anxiety and depression medications in adulthood, according to a study by Petra Persson and Maya Rossin-Slater. Further, family ruptures during pregnancy depress birth outcomes and raise the risk of perinatal complications necessitating hospitalization.

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20 May 2016

Teachers Significantly Affect Unmeasured Student Skills

Teachers have effects on student skills that are not measured by test-scores, but which are reflected in levels of absences and suspensions, grades, and on-time grade progression, a study by C. Kirabo Jackson finds. When teacher attributes are measured using both test-score and non-test-score measures, the share of long-run variation in student outcomes that can be explained by differential exposure to different teachers nearly doubles.

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19 May 2016

Compulsory Voting, Turnout, and Government Spending

Analyzing Austrian state and national elections from the period 1949-2010, Mitchell Hoffman, Gianmarco León, and María Lombardi show that compulsory voting laws with weakly enforced fines increase turnout by roughly 10 percentage points. Individuals swayed to vote due to compulsory voting are more likely than other voters to be non-partisan, to have low interest in politics, and to be uninformed.

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More Research

Innovation Policy and the Economy

The 16th volume of Innovation Policy and the Economy offers insights into the changing landscape of innovation by highlighting recent developments in the financing of innovation and entrepreneurship and in the economics of innovation and intellectual property. Edited by Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern; published by The University of Chicago Press.

Details and ordering information

Wide Variety of Analyses, Multiple Perspectives

... in Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 29

From an estimate of how much the federal government could raise by limiting tax expenditures, to an analysis of whether tax credits have a significant causal effect on college attendance and related outcomes, to the impact of the Affordable Care Act on taxes on income and on full-time employment, the 29th volume of Tax Policy and the Economy illustrates the depth and breadth of taxation-related research by NBER associates. The book, edited by Jeffrey R. Brown, is just out from The University of Chicago Press.

Details and ordering information

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This Week's Working Papers

New in the NBER Digest

Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood

While the traditional gender gap is between more-employed men and less-employed women, research featured in the May edition of The NBER Digest finds the reverse is true for people who grow up in areas of concentrated poverty. This month's Digest also presents inquiries into the influence of disability insurance payments on earnings, similarities and differences in urbanization in rich and poor nations, the effects on innovation levels when universities take a larger share of professors' profits, the benefits for high-achieving minority students of being placed in classrooms for the gifted, and the long-term effects of disruptive students in elementary school classrooms.

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New in the NBER Reporter

The International Monetary System, Then and Now

Some in the international community, most notably France in the 1960s, complained loudly that the Bretton Woods regime afforded the United States "exorbitant privilege." The discarding of that system in the early 1970s should have put an end to that. But Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes in the latest issue of the quarterly NBER Reporter that recent research shows the international monetary system retains many structural features of the Bretton Woods regime.

Bulletin on Aging and Health

Health Care Spending of the Elderly

The federal government pays for two-thirds of health care spending by the elderly, with Medicare accounting for 55 percent, Medicaid for 10 percent, and other government programs for 3 percent, according to a working paper summarized in the latest NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health. Nearly 20 percent of the medical spending of the elderly is financed out-of-pocket, while 13 percent is covered by private insurance.

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Disability Insurance Programs and Retirement

Vol. 6 in Series on Social Security Around World

Disability insurance programs can play a significant role in the departure of older workers; in some countries, many individuals rely on disability insurance until they are able to enter into full retirement. The sixth stage of an ongoing research project studying the relationship between social security programs and labor force participation, this volume draws on the work of an eminent group of international economists to consider the extent to which differences in labor force participation across countries are determined by the provisions of disability insurance programs. Edited by David A. Wise; published by The University of Chicago Press.

Details and ordering information

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