Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on the Energy Transition in an Era of Low Fossil Fuel Prices

April 12, 2016

Commodity prices have declined since the release of the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO). Diminishing growth prospects for emerging market economies, especially China, combined with abundant supply are putting downward pressure on the prices of most commodities, although the relative importance of each force differs across commodities. Oil prices have declined mostly on account of news about strong supply magnified by risk-off behavior in financial markets. Read more >>

Blog: Oil Prices and the Global Economy: It's Complicated

By Maurice Obstfeld, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Rabah Arezki

March 24, 2016

Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat, and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment. Read more >>

Blog: The Price of Oil and the Price of Carbon

Rabah Arezki and Maurice Obstfeld

December 2, 2015

Fossil fuel prices are likely to stay "low for long." Low fossil fuel prices could discourage further innovation in and adoption of cleaner energy technologies. The result would be higher emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Read more >>

Blog: Sovereign Wealth Funds in the New Era of Oil

By Rabah Arezki, Adnan Mazarei, and Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Posted on October 26, 2015 by iMFdirect

As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. The growth in the assets of their sovereign wealth funds, which were rising at a rapid rate until recently, is now slowing; some have started drawing on their buffers. Read more >>

Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Metals in the World Economy

Rabah Arezki, Akito Matsumoto and Hongyan Zhao

from World Economic Outlook: October 2015

This special feature includes an in-depth analysis of metal markets in the world economy. It puts recent developments into perspective by documenting the dramatic demand and supply shifts over past decades and argues that the balance between demand and supply forces points to a “low-for-long” scenario in metal prices. >>

Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Investment in an Era of Low Oil Prices

Rabah Arezki, Akito Matsumoto, Shane Streifel and Hongyan Zhao

from World Economic Outlook: April 2015

Commodity prices have fallen markedly since the release of the October 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO), led by a dramatic drop in crude oil prices driven by both supply and demand factors. Metal prices have fallen because of slowing demand growth in China and significant increases in the supply of most metals. Food prices have declined mostly on account of favorable harvests. >>