'Hidden Figures' Poised to Top MLK Weekend Ahead of Several New & Expanding Releases

It's shaping up to be a competitive Martin Luther King Jr. weekend with three new wide releases hitting theaters along with two major expansions and the moderate expansion of Martin Scorsese's Silence. Yet, even with that being the case, after narrowly edging out Rogue One: A Star Wars Story for the #1 spot last weekend, Hidden Figures is looking at a more decisive victory this weekend as the film adds more than 800 theaters.

The new releases include STX's PG-13 horror The Bye Bye Man, Paramount is finally delivering Monster Trucks and Open Road will premiere the Jamie Foxx starrer Sleepless into just over 1,800 theaters. In addition to new releases Lionsgate and CBS Films brings Patriots Day to audiences nationwide and Warner Bros. will do the same for Ben Affleck's Live by Night, but while the former is looking at a solid debut the latter has struggled in limited release. There's also the case of a little film called La La Land, which went home with a record number of Golden Globe wins on Sunday and is now adding a few more theaters including 148 IMAX screens. Let's break it down.

As word of mouth continues to spread, Fox's Hidden Figures is looking at a very strong three and four-day weekend after bringing in $22.8 million as it launched nationwide last weekend. This weekend it will be playing in 3,286 theaters (+815) with no reason to slow down and perhaps even improve. Fandango tells us the film was leading Thursday morning sales after leading sales on Tuesday and narrowly being edged out by sales leader La La Land on Monday and Wednesday, but we'll get to La La in a second. As for a Hidden Figures forecast, a second weekend at #1 seems a very strong possibility, bringing in around $22 million over the three-day and heading north of $25 million for the four-day holiday weekend.

Expected to finish in the runner-up position is Lionsgate and CBS Films's expansion of Peter Berg's Patriots Day starring Mark Wahlberg in a re-telling of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. The film is expanding into 3,120 theaters after playing in seven theaters since debuting on December 21, bringing in just shy of $1 million as of today. Industry expectations peg the film at a $15-18 million three-day and a $20+ million four-day weekend, all of which seems about right. However, to look at the film's performance on IMDb it's pacing behind Hacksaw Ridge and well behind previous Berg-Wahlberg collaborations Lone Survivor and Deepwater Horizon. Fandango does tell us it is outpacing Hacksaw heading into the weekend, which gives reason to push our three-day forecast above $15 million, resulting in something closer to $17-18.3 million for the three-day and a four-day anywhere from $20-24 million.

How third place shapes out depends mostly on La La Land's performance. We're anticipating a three-day for Rogue One around $14 million and $12.6 million for Universal and Illumination's Sing. Our current three-day expectation for La La is around $12.5 million from 1,843 theaters (+328) including a one week run on 148 IMAX screens. As already mentioned, the film lead Fandango's daily sales on Monday and Wednesday and yesterday it finally topped Rogue One to finish in second place for the day as its domestic cume approaches $60 million. Can it keep that up over the weekend and just how many of the film's sales heading into the weekend are for moviegoers getting a jump start in purchasing tickets for IMAX showings?

Industry expectations peg La La Land around $10 million for the three-day and $12-13 million for the four day as the film should be topping $70 million domestically by the end of the day Monday. We're a little more bullish in our expectations, anticipating $12.5 million for the three-day and $15+ million for the four-day.

Next we finally come to two of the weekend's new wide releases beginning with STX's The Bye Bye Man, which will debut in 2,220 theaters. Previously STX released The Boy in late January in 2,671 theaters where it opened with $10.7 million before going on to gross nearly $36 million. A peek at IMDb page view performance shows Bye Bye Man performing well behind The Boy as well as films such as The Forest and STX's The Gift which opened with $12.7 million and $11.8 million respectively. All things considered a three-day around $7.5 million seems a safe expectation and a four-day below $10 million seems likely.

Things aren't looking any better for Paramount's Monster Trucks, a film that carries a reported $125 million budget and for which Viacom has already taken a $115 million write down. That said, the film will be released in 3,119 theaters this weekend where industry exceptions anticipate a $8-10 million four-day weekend, which may prove bullish.

Comparing Monster Trucks's IMDb page view performance to titles such as Ratchet & Clank, Middle School and Max Steel doesn't prove favorably for the film as audience interest and awareness appears to be on the extreme low end. At this point we're forecasting a mere $7 million three-day and $8.35 million four-day and even that feels generous.

Further down the list we come to Open Road's Sleepless featuring Jamie Foxx and T.I. as a couple of corrupt cops. The film will debut in 1,803 theaters and expectations aren't too high for this one either as a three-day around $5 million and four-day around $6.3 million figure to be just about right as the lack of reviews and buzz don't bode well.

Finally we come to Ben Affleck's Live by Night, which has simply failed to energize audiences or critics since debuting in four theaters on Christmas Day and so far brought in a mere $181,963. This weekend it rolls into 2,822 theaters and expectations are low. Like Affleck's directorial debut, Gone Baby Gone, Live by Night is based on a Dennis Lehane novel, in line with previous Lehane adaptations such as Mystic River, Shutter Island and The Drop, the latter of which has the lowest wide opening of the lot at $4.1 million from 809 theaters. Live by Night doesn't look that dire, especially given the disparity in theater counts, though it wouldn't be entirely surprising if it failed to merely eek into the top ten. That said, we're currently anticipating a $7.3 million three-day as it hopes to top $9 million for the four-day.

Outside the top ten, look for Martin Scorsese's Silence to score around $2+ million for the three-day and $3+ million for the four-day from 747 theaters (+696) and FIP's Ok Jaanu will release in 121 theaters.

This weekend's three and four-day forecasts are directly below.

3-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST

• Hidden Figures (3,286 theaters) - $22 M
• Patriots Day (3,120 theaters) - $17.5 M
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (3,162 theaters) - $14.1 M
• Sing (3,688 theaters) - $12.6 M
• La La Land (1,843 theaters) - $12.5 M
• Underworld: Blood Wars (3,070 theaters) - $7.5 M
• The Bye Bye Man (2,220 theaters) - $7.5 M
• Live By Night (2,822 theaters) - $7.3 M
• Monster Trucks (3,119 theaters) - $7 M
• Sleepless (1,803 theaters) - $5 M

4-DAY MLK WEEKEND FORECAST

• Hidden Figures - $25.75 M
• Patriots Day - $21.13 M
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $16.51 M
• Sing - $15.5 M
• La La Land - $15.34 M
• The Bye Bye Man - $9.06 M
• Underworld: Blood Wars - $9.03 M
• Live By Night - $8.75 M
• Monster Trucks - $8.35 M
• Sleepless - $6.3 M

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