Ariel Edwards-LevyVerified account

@aedwardslevy

Reporter and polling editor , covering politics/public opinion. LA native, USC alum, perpetually in search of a pithier Twitter bio. I like puns.

Washington, DC
tinyletter.com/aedwardslevy
Joined March 2009
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    14 Jul 2017

    My favorite thing about poll stories is that it's an entire beat devoted to the idea that what the public thinks truly matters

    25 replies 92 retweets 551 likes
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  2. 3 hours ago

    -knock knock -who's there -interrupting cow -interrup... -i had an idea for that survey you're writing

    3 replies 12 likes
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  3. 3 hours ago

    extreme makeover only it's for horrible crosstabs

    6 likes
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  4. 3 hours ago

    Share of the American public that wants the U.S. to declare war on Iran: 23% Share that thinks Trump wants to: 49%

    7 retweets 14 likes
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  5. 4 hours ago

    ICYMI, a quick check-in on Trump's approval numbers:

    Trump voters (as you may have heard!) still like Trump. But I think it's important to keep in mind the other side of that story, which is that they're outnumbered by Clinton voters -- who still really, overwhelmingly loathe him..
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    1 retweet 5 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    Trump support is 90% among Republicans at t2. Counterfactual: if people who changed support had *not* switched parties, GOP support would still be 88%. I'm constrained by a small base of switchers, but I doubt party switches affect Trump's support by more than a couple of points.

    3 replies 4 retweets 10 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    Read this for more on party ID switching. Excellent.

    Updating report and I did on party switching from Jan-July 2017: . Analyzing / panel data between Feb/Mar '17 and May/Jun '18, substantive results looking quite similar: only 8% switched parties over this roughly 15-month period.
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    3 retweets 2 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    5 hours ago
    Replying to

    And the recent PPIC has 20% volunteering that they would not vote for U.S. Senate and 5% saying they would not vote for Governor - the difference is 15% which is another good predictor of what the drop-off will be in votes from Governor to Senate in California in November.

    1 retweet 1 like
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  9. Retweeted
    5 hours ago
    Replying to

    In 2016 when the two candidates in California for U.S. Senate were both Democrats (Harris and Sanchez) the drop-off in votes cast for President (14,237,893) and those cast for Senate (12,244,176) was about 14%. We will probably see something similar in 2018.

    1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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  10. 5 hours ago

    stand by for GRUs

    5 replies 30 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    5 hours ago

    1 reply 22 retweets 126 likes
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  12. 5 hours ago

    should we throw a baby shower for the scoop

    5 retweets 39 likes
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  13. 5 hours ago

    just this once i want "big news story" to mean it's about an elephant

    9 replies 9 retweets 105 likes
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  14. 6 hours ago

    (As the NBC story notes, there's a real difference between moms/dads, but unfortunately limiting by gender would make that sample size even smaller...)

    1 like
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  15. 6 hours ago

    FWIW, re this interesting post: Went back to look at June HP/YG data. The subgroup sample sizes here are too small to make much of, but after controlling for party, I don't see much diff between parents/non-parents on family separation.

    1 reply 2 likes
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  16. 6 hours ago

    wait they don't accurately represent the demographics like i accurately represent the demographics 🎶maa-aaaaaa-aaa-aaaps

    I feel like I've had the cartograms vs geographic maps argument like four times this year already
    5 replies 5 retweets 30 likes
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  17. 6 hours ago

    As PPIC's pollster noted to me in June, the fun twist for CA pollsters now is trying to evaluate how Republican voters will deal with the choice between two Dems. A lot may choose not to vote at all in the race!

    icymi CALIFORNIA U.S. Senate: Dianne Feinstein (D) 46% Kevin de León (D) 24% Other, unsure 29% (Public Policy Institute of California, LV, 7/8-17/18)
    1 reply 5 likes
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  18. 6 hours ago

    willy nilly silly old year

    1 retweet 10 likes
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  19. 6 hours ago

    twenty-eighteen twenty-eighteen

    I have been humming the words "twenty-sixteen" to the tune of "Winnie-the-Pooh" nonstop for about a week now, please send help
    3 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
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  20. 8 hours ago

    can the Eerie Glowing Party hold onto the Heartland

    1 reply 22 likes
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  21. 8 hours ago

    meanwhile in a parallel universe with different partisan color conventions

    8 replies 5 retweets 67 likes
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